Panel
Global Risk: Challenges for the Next President
- The incoming administration will inherit significant geopolitical risks including threats from Vladimir Putin, Middle East instability, Chinese economic vulnerability, and potential EU disintegration due to Brexit or the rise of populist parties in Eastern Europe.
- NATO rejuvenation is deemed critical as Cold War deterrent architecture has decayed, with specific concerns regarding the inability to move equipment to Poland due to logistical gaps and the inability to reinforce the Baltics because of Russian SA-300-400 systems in Kaliningrad.
- Russia faces a weak economic position but maintains a strong strategic hand, engaging in step-by-step encroachments on Georgian territory, conducting nuclear research potentially on third and fourth-generation weapons, and creating an air of intimidation affecting Eastern European politics and investment.
- In Ukraine, the Minsk agreements remain unresolved with ongoing corruption and losses of two to four soldiers per day, while intelligence suggests Russia may attempt to surge forces or push for a permanent annexation of Crimea if a strategic deal is made with a Trump administration.
- The United States lacks precision anti-tank weapons to defeat T-90 tanks or precision anti-aircraft systems to counter drones in the region, and current policy regarding the provision of lethal defensive arms to Ukraine is viewed as a failure that plays into Russian advantages.
- The Middle East presents decades of challenges characterized by high youth unemployment, radical Islamism, and potential collapse of the Iraqi government, requiring a shift away from military transformation toward diplomatic solutions and realism.
- Economic constraints include a Federal Reserve maxed out in a liquidity trap, necessitating a compelling case for free trade and immigration while avoiding tax hikes that could stifle growth.
- China is viewed as the most important long-term relationship over the next 30 to 50 years, with fears of a historical "Thucydides trap" where a rising power conflicts with an incumbent, driven by China's filling of vacuums in the South and East China Seas and its state-owned enterprise agreements.
- The US faces a deficit in cyber defense capabilities, with sophisticated Chinese cyber weapons still being understood, requiring an economic and military pushback against intellectual property theft and a more frequent presence in the 12-mile nautical area.
- A primary risk involves a potential deal between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that could legitimize the annexation of Crimea, undermine Western leadership integrity, and fail to address the long-term nature of Russia's strategic game.
- Future stability depends on the next president establishing a coherent strategic narrative to counter populist movements, manage the fiscal deficit which is considered the greatest threat to US goals, and avoid a repetition of historical conflicts between rising and incumbent powers.