Panel
Global Risk: Disruption Without End?
Milken InstituteJohn Micklethwait, Carlos Gutierrez, Jane Harman, Lord Mandelson, James G. Stavridis, Mac Thornberry, Jim Stavridis, Peter Mandelson
- Global risk is described as becoming more ceaseless and endless, creating conditions where markets often panic briefly but cannot fully comprehend or cope with the underlying causes.
- US-North Korea relations are characterized by extreme uncertainty, with predictions that Kim Jong-un prioritizes regime preservation and will not surrender his nuclear arsenal, though some view an agreement as having better-than-even odds over a one-to-two-year timeframe.
- Russia faces a declining and maldistributed population concentrated in a small region, with predictions that President Putin may take risks involving accidental collisions in Syria or continued operations in Ukraine, potentially sparking dramatic confrontation.
- Europe is seen as economically regaining momentum but suffering from internal political tensions and a weakening of the transatlantic alliance, particularly due to concerns over the US withdrawing from the Iran deal or the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
- China's economy is described as being at an inflection point with debt reaching 250% of GDP, where overbuilding must eventually face a reckoning as growth slows from 6.5% to approximately 4%.
- Trade tensions are already manifesting through delayed contracts and acquisitions, with the US planning to apply tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports to address intellectual property violations, while observers doubt the ability to fundamentally change China's political system.
- The South China Sea is identified as a high-probability flashpoint where potential conflict could arise if Chinese leadership seeks outlets amidst slowing economic growth.
- US military strategy is currently critiqued for lacking a sustained post-9/11 plan and congressional authorization for the use of force, leading to power vacuums filled by Russia and China in regions like Syria and the Middle East.
- Future US military investment is expected to shift focus toward peer competitors and specific technologies including hypersonics, AI, and missile defense, which may face congressional controversy.
- The US is predicted to lose strategic advantages in Asia due to the withdrawal from the TPP, effectively ceding trade opportunities to China, while the UK faces a downward trajectory in military spending over the next decade due to Brexit.
- Cyber threats are expanding rapidly as the Internet of Things proliferates, creating an infinitely broad threat surface that attacks both national security and intimate personal details.
- The US is assessed as prepared for geographic threats but only somewhat ready for cyber challenges, with virtually no preparation for a highly predictable pandemic potentially infecting 40% of the global population with a 20% mortality rate.
- International uncertainty and unpredictability are viewed as double-edged swords that may cause adversaries to pause but are only effective when backed by a strong military capability.