Conference Presentation, Panel
Global Trade Outlook for 2019
- A 90-day progress period is established for US-China trade talks following a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, with expectations for fruitful negotiations that avoid triggering tariffs.
- The USMCA agreement is anticipated to be ratified by both the US Congress and the Canadian Parliament, serving as a model for future trade deals with the UK, EU, and Japan.
- The UK-EU relationship remains uncertain until negotiations commence after March next year, with Brexit expected to remain a persistent issue for three to five years.
- Canada plans to allocate resources to the Trade Commissioner Service over the next seven to eight years to help companies diversify exports and navigate new trade landscapes.
- The US aims to secure a high-quality free trade agreement with the UK contingent upon a successful Brexit, while hoping to avoid a no-deal scenario.
- General Motors continues to prioritize production in China to meet a target of 30 million annual sales, with manufacturing locations unlikely to shift despite the dispute.
- Concerns exist regarding the complexity of a "spaghetti bowl" of bilateral agreements creating pressure on exporters to rationalize rules across different markets.
- British companies face significant uncertainty regarding the duration of tariffs and necessary business decisions, particularly while waiting to understand the long-term UK-EU dynamic.
- Direct engagement with China is recommended given the 40-year milestone of economic reform, with hope that China will open markets on its own terms to preserve face.
- The WTO is identified as the appropriate forum for global China issues, though currently, the US, EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are the primary actors taking action.
- Future competition may intensify if other economies adopt more efficient alternatives rather than copying US market rules in the event of US retreat from open market principles.
- It is expected that as China develops an innovative entrepreneurial class, the perceived necessity for technology theft will diminish.
- Evidence of economic pain caused by tariffs in both the US and China is anticipated to drive further negotiations even if a comprehensive agreement is not immediately finalized.