Panel, Conference Presentation
Going Over the Top: New Currents in the Digital Stream
- The "Milken and meeting" event is projected to sustain its growth trajectory over the coming years, mirroring performance from the last decade.
- Tom Beers is scheduled to step down as CEO of Fremantle Media in August while remaining on the board to focus on panel topics, and he anticipates dismantling the traditional Long Island ad sales group.
- Mark Greenberg predicts the industry must shift toward younger audiences and on-demand distribution, noting that consumers may favor set-top box content from single providers despite definitional ambiguities surrounding "over the top" services.
- Epic plans to advance original serious content by leveraging expertise from three major studios, while Machinima aims to match the production dollar levels of top-tier traditional TV within a decade by combining influencers with professional writers and directors.
- Digital content audiences, particularly among 18- to 34-year-old males, are expected to reach viewership parity with major cable networks like Spike and Adult Swim, with the top five YouTubers equating to the top 20 TV actors in viewership.
- Tech giants including Google, Facebook, and Apple are forecast to disrupt cable infrastructure through methods like balloon broadband and are expected to dominate TV sorting and channel distribution over the next five years.
- Facebook is predicted to acquire Comcast and monetize video content natively, though current models remain less efficient than YouTube's revenue share, prompting a shift where brands must build direct-to-consumer networks on platforms like Twitter and Instagram.
- Content economics are expected to diverge, with traditional scripted episode budgets stabilizing between $3 million and $5 million, whereas YouTube content costs approximately $1,500 per minute, while program makers may accept lower pay rates to access expanding audiences.
- Netflix is forecast to overpay for content without securing back-end revenue unless the provider controls the distribution pipeline, and Vice plans to launch an H2 experiment distinct from the traditional 8,760-hour Nielsen-driven model.
- The media landscape in five years will likely feature mobile-first on-air promotion via social streams, channel stores as apps replacing traditional numbers, and three-dimensional content interaction via augmented reality, with the "curator" becoming a dominant force in discovery.
- A major market shift in the next five years is anticipated to center on an aggregator service solving the discovery problem, while the average consumer's channel consideration set is expected to increase only marginally from 11 to 12 despite vast availability.
- Traditional print media like the Wall Street Journal are expected to struggle in launching successful TV networks due to differing consumption processes, whereas personal brands like Glenn Beck and Howard Stern are seen as successful in translating to new platforms.
- Future production and sales will involve Chad Gutstein selling convergent ad packages as reliance on Nielsen ratings declines, while Tom Beers projects his new production company will generate over $200 million in sales within five years.
- Millennials and post-millennials are predicted to cut the cord entirely, watching content exclusively on devices, while Hulu continues its OTT expansion as evidenced by the Seinfeld deal, and Tom Green is launching a new network utilizing Periscope to drive traffic to TomGreen.com.