Jan 23, 2026, 6:00 AM ETInterview, Fireside Chat

Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets

The 2025 global economy experienced solid growth and market strength despite a significant "speed bump" in April related to trade policy and tariff implementation.
The macroeconomic setup for 2026 is characterized by a confluence of stimulative policies, including extensive fiscal stimulus (with major provisions taking effect in 2026), monetary easing (a 100 basis point rate cut in 2025), and deregulation.
Expectations for 2026 include one or two additional interest rate cuts, with a potential shift in policy focus toward addressing consumer cost-of-living concerns ahead of midterm elections.
Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty remain the primary risks to market stability, with specific concerns regarding potential tariffs in Europe and noise surrounding Greenland.
While short-term drawdowns or pauses are anticipated in response to exogenous geopolitical events, the underlying macro environment for risk assets remains constructive.

The U.S. holds a structural growth advantage over Europe and China, driven by its innovation ecosystem, tech infrastructure, and superior capital formation processes.
United States vs. Europe:
- The U.S. economy ($30 trillion) maintains a ~2% trend growth rate, while the EU economy ($20 trillion) is stuck below 1% trend growth.
- Implementation of the European "Draghi plan" is proceeding slowly, with only 11% of the proposal implemented to date.
- The growth gap between the U.S. and Europe is projected to widen, despite European desires for a more capital-friendly regulatory regime.
China's Status:
- Chinese equity markets surged 60–80% following a difficult bottom, though the broader economy remains sluggish.
- Bilateral U.S.-China relations are expected to de-escalate and become more constructive for most of 2026.

Goldman Sachs projects 2026 could be one of the best years in history for M&A activity, contingent on the absence of major exogenous sentiment-shifting events.
CEO sentiment is shifting toward forward-thinking dealmaking due to a perceived more permissive regulatory environment, a stark contrast to the "no" answers received over the previous four years.
The IPO market is improving, driven by private equity portfolios correcting valuation marks from 2020–2021 and large companies transitioning from private to public markets.
While equity issuance growth is expected to continue, it is not projected to match the record volumes of 2021.

AI remains a primary market driver with expanding opportunity sets, though the pace of enterprise deployment may see recalibrations if adoption proves slower than expected.
Capital investment in AI infrastructure is expected to accelerate, despite potential valuation volatility.
David Solomon rejects "job apocalypse" narratives, asserting that while AI will disrupt jobs, the U.S. economy's vibrancy typically creates new industries and roles at a rate that offsets dislocations.
Goldman Sachs' AI Strategy ("OneGS 3.0"):
- The initiative targets the reimagining of six specific internal processes (e.g., KYC/onboarding) to drive efficiency and automation.
- The primary challenge identified is not tool adoption by employees, but the fundamental restructuring of long-standing, legacy business processes.
- Efficiency gains are expected to free up capacity for investment in growth rather than result in a net reduction of the firm's headcount.

Over the past eight years, the firm has executed a strategy to streamline core businesses and exit consumer banking, raising revenues from $36.5 billion (2019) to approximately $60 billion.
Operating leverage has improved significantly, with earnings up 120% and market capitalization increasing from $70 billion to $300 billion during the same period.
The firm is focusing on two core areas for future growth: Asset Management and Wealth Management, bolstered by recent inorganic transactions.
Internal culture has evolved to break down silos and foster greater collaboration across business lines, with partners prioritizing the overall firm outcome over individual unit performance.
Core values of client service, partnership, integrity, and excellence remain foundational, though leadership continues to actively adjust the "compass" to ensure these values drive current operations.

The firm's primary concern for 2026 is "exogenous events" such as geopolitical conflicts, cyberattacks, or pandemics that could abruptly alter the economic trajectory.
While sentiment is generally optimistic regarding technology and productivity, leadership maintains a strict lens on risk management to ensure preparedness for unforeseen shifts.
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the long-term productivity gains AI offers across sectors including healthcare and disease research.
Disclosure: This material was recorded on January 20, 2026; opinions are subject to change and do not constitute investment advice.