Interview
Grand Barnier: France’s new prime minister
The EconomistGrand Barnier, Michel Barnier, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Simon Verity, Rosie Bloor, Sophie Pedder, Adam O'Neill, Anne Rowe
- Michel Barnier faces the immediate challenge of forming a government with three competing minority blocs in the French Parliament by October 1st, requiring a unifying coalition despite left-wing resistance and unfamiliarity with cross-party arrangements.
- The political climate is forecasted to be difficult due to left-wing protests scheduled for September 7th over election results, Barnier's controversial 2021 immigration stance, and a potential power struggle with President Macron regarding ministry nominations and decision-making authority.
- France's public finances are projected to reach a budget deficit of 5.6% this year, exceeding the European Union's 3% limit, necessitating unpopular budget cuts to address the perilous state of public spending.
- In the US election, Donald Trump is employing a strategy of attacking Kamala Harris as incompetent regarding border and inflation issues, while his campaign offers no specific middle-class plans other than tax cuts for billionaires.
- With nine weeks remaining in the campaign, the election is expected to be decided by tens of thousands of votes in swing states, creating a scenario where a 5 to 10 percentage point erosion of Democratic margins could determine the outcome.
- Kamala Harris has improved her standing compared to her predecessor but has not yet matched support levels among voters under 30, Black, and Hispanic demographics, prompting potential tactical shifts toward more negative advertising by Democrats.
- Political consultants are preparing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on negative advertising, though the actual impact of such messaging on voter behavior remains a subject of ongoing debate.
- The "Checks and Balance" program will examine foreign policy as a key theme, with listeners returning to a weekend edition focusing on Nigerian women.