Interview, Fireside Chat
Has America frozen Israel out of ceasefire talks with Iran? | The Economist
- The conclusion of the war is projected to be a significantly more difficult and laborious process than its initiation, with outcomes largely dictated by Donald Trump's terms rather than Israel's preferences.
- Trump is actively conducting negotiations with Iran via Pakistan, creating an expectation that he will eventually demand Israel delay strikes and accept a ceasefire lasting at least a few days to facilitate talks in Islamabad.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu faces constrained agency in this dynamic, as he is unlikely to jeopardize his relationship with Trump despite internal pressure to avoid ending the war at a disadvantageous point.
- With an election anticipated in approximately six months, Netanyahu is expected to utilize the Lebanon front to demonstrate fighting spirit while the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon issues may be leveraged by various parties to either advance or delay negotiations.
- A shift in diplomatic blame between Jerusalem and Washington is expected to begin as the Iran war concludes, accompanied by increasing distance from Netanyahu by key administration figures including the Vice President, Secretary of State, and CIA Director, though a total break remains uncertain.