Interview, Fireside Chat
Henry Kissinger: how Biden should handle China
- Henry Kissinger identifies a marked escalation in US-China tensions, characterized by mutually exclusive narratives where the US alleges China seeks global hegemony and China alleges US interference in domestic affairs.
- Kissinger warns that the increasing number of contested issues makes future understanding increasingly difficult, necessitating a foundational agreement on principles before addressing specific disputes.
- The proposed minimum understanding between the two powers consists of:
- Explicitly excluding the possibility of high-tech warfare between them.
- Exercising mutual restraint in bilateral relations and interactions with the rest of the world.
- Regarding the Biden administration, Kissinger assesses that:
- The current team is in a preliminary phase of internal consensus-building and initial outreach to China.
- The diplomatic tone represents an improvement over the preceding administration, though fundamental confrontation challenging either side's basic structure must be avoided.
- Biden's public rhetoric on trade and human rights is interpreted as a strategic balancing act between:
- Domestic political pressures where China is viewed as a common threat.
- The risk that the Republican opposition will portray the administration as "soft on China."
- The international necessity of establishing a shared definition of the global order while maintaining domestic cohesion.
- Addressing criticism regarding China's actions—specifically military encroachment on Taiwan, suppression of Hong Kong, and human rights abuses in Xinjiang—Kissinger reiterates that he never claimed engagement would automatically lead to Chinese democratization.
- Kissinger frames the challenge as a unique historical test of coexistence between a democratic US and a "Confucian Marxist" China of indefinite magnitude, arguing that such coexistence is necessary and attainable but not automatic.
- He emphasizes that the long-term viability of this relationship requires the explicit definition of specific issues rather than relying on a rules-based order that he suggests is currently not clearly applying to China.