Highlights: You should stop reading the news | Bryan Caplan (2023)

Psychological Impact of News Consumption

• Following the news consistently induces agitation, anger, and mood volatility due to the prevalence of negative content in daily reporting.
• The emotional distress caused by news is often disproportionate to personal risk, as most negative events do not directly impact the individual's immediate life or safety.
• Rob Kaplan reports a 90% reduction in news consumption since December, resulting in increased productivity, reduced anxiety, and improved mood stability.
• Prior to quitting news, the host spent 10% of his waking hours (1–3 hours daily) consuming news; subsequent time was reallocated to books, lecture series (e.g., The Great Courses), and recreational gaming.
• Kaplan argues that avoiding news does not significantly compromise personal safety or knowledge, as critical information is effectively communicated through secondary channels (e.g., social connections, historical context, or Wikipedia).

Information Acquisition Alternatives

• Kaplan recommends Wikipedia and history books as superior sources for accurate, less emotionally charged information compared to daily news cycles.
• Aggregating information via Wikipedia provides better filtration of false or trivial claims and reduces the "emotional roller coaster" associated with real-time reporting.
• Kaplan claims to maintain near-total knowledge on complex topics (e.g., Israel-Palestine) through books, graphic novels, and historical analysis without daily news engagement.
• The "frenetic energy" of live news is identified as a primary driver of addiction, but Kaplan suggests friendship and social interaction are healthier substitutes for this sense of engagement.

Media's Role in Terrorism and Modern Conflict

• Kaplan asserts that approximately 70% of terrorism is motivated by the desire for massive media coverage, suggesting that a blanket media ban could significantly reduce terrorist incidents.
• The media ecosystem has shifted modern warfare from resource-driven conflicts with clear resolutions to "frozen conflicts" designed primarily for antagonism and showboating.
• Modern interventions, such as Russian actions in Ukraine, are characterized by minimal strategic value and maximum media spectacle, differing from historical wars focused on tangible assets or decisive victory.
• Kaplan notes that while total media suppression is impossible due to word-of-mouth and internet proliferation, reducing the incentive for media attention could alter terrorist behavior.

Evolution of AI Capabilities

• Kaplan revised his stance on AI risks after observing GPT-3 fail economics exams (earning a "D") while GPT-4 achieved an "A" on the same tests within three months.
• Kaplan uses his own 25-year university midterm exams as a rigorous, non-public metric to test AI, arguing these are superior to SATs because they assess deep understanding rather than rote memorization of training data.
• The rapid improvement from "vaporware" to high-performance capability in 2023–2024 convinced Kaplan that AI poses a significant, tangible capability shift.
• Kaplan placed a bet with a colleague regarding AI's future performance, with the resolution delayed until 2030 to verify sustained capability beyond a single test.

Rationality and Voting Behavior

• Kaplan argues that individual voting behavior is functionally irrational because a single vote has negligible influence on election outcomes, unlike individual spending which directly impacts personal finance.
• Because voters do not bear the direct consequences of their choices, they tend to vote based on social desirability, emotional appeal, or superficial ideology rather than policy efficacy.
• Universal redistribution systems are defended by politicians not on economic merit but as a mechanism to deceive the electorate into accepting redistribution by making it appear universally beneficial.
• Kaplan highlights a lack of rigorous economic literature defending universal redistribution in favor of means-tested approaches, suggesting the former persists due to political incentives rather than sound policy design.
• A forthcoming book by Kaplan aims to provide a psychological framework for the "Myth of the Rational Voter," focusing on how social desirability bias shapes democratic policy.