How bad is the crisis in democracy?
The EconomistDistan, Aurélie Filippetti, Elena, Mary Bono, Lee Drutman, Kadri Gürsel, Ekrem İmamoğlu
- Global democracy quality is projected to decline over the coming decade, with approximately 10% fewer people living in full democracies compared to ten years ago, driven by a widening gap between citizens and political elites.
- Fledgling democracies face increasing risks of succumbing to autocracy, while established systems risk being "strangled slowly" by populist leaders exploiting public grievances.
- In France, centralized power and elite disconnect are anticipated to persist despite the closure of the ENA school, with critics expecting Emmanuel Macron to be viewed as part of the traditional political class and the national political system to remain dominated by metropolitan interests.
- The Gilets Jaunes movement, though currently declined, is expected to remain dominated by political extremists in the near future.
- Trust in the US government is forecast to continue falling from 17% (current) following a drop from 40% in 2000, influenced by a political environment where business interests, represented by 95 of the top 100 lobbying spenders, dominate the agenda.
- The US opioid crisis is predicted to continue as a "total epidemic" causing approximately 115 deaths daily and totaling about 70,000 annually—exceeding fatalities from car crashes or guns—driven by pharmaceutical lobbying that previously stalled regulatory responses and led to the proliferation of black market alternatives like heroin and fentanyl in 2016.
- The US political system is described as "hollowed out," with Congress becoming less capable over four decades due to de-investing in institutional knowledge, while high lobbying expenditures signal expected returns for business.
- In Turkey, despite political corruption and unfair conditions, the ballot box remains a viable mechanism for challenging entrenched leadership, with voter resilience expected to prevent the system from being fully hijacked.
- Young people in non-democratic countries are expected to increasingly recognize the dignity of democracy and the value of striving for it, providing a potential avenue for the renewal of democracies worldwide.