How Biden can be a global leader

Shift in Global Perception: America's reputation in wealthy nations has fallen to a 20-year low, with democratic norms perceived as significantly undermined by the Trump era.

• The January 6th storming of the Capitol and the two impeachments of Donald Trump are cited as the primary drivers of this decline.
• Many foreign leaders now view the US as no longer a reliable "beacon of democracy."

COVID-19 and Public Health Policy:

• During the pandemic, the Trump administration retreated from leadership, dismissing the virus's severity and withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) in July 2020.
• By the time of the Capitol storm, nearly 4,000 Americans had died daily, with the cumulative toll exceeding 350,000, damaging US global standing.
• Biden Administration Plans:
  • Rejoin the WHO immediately upon taking office.
  • Hire 100,000 contact tracers domestically.
  • Allocate $25 billion for vaccine manufacturing and distribution.
  • Join COVAX to distribute vaccines globally.

Multilateralism and Alliances:

• President Biden intends to reverse Trump's withdrawal from 12 international organizations and treaties, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
• Strategic Goal: Reaffirm commitments to NATO and the Paris Climate Accord to restore trust in multilateral institutions.
• Tactical Shift: Move from an "America First" isolationist posture to a "predictable" diplomatic approach that avoids sudden policy reversals via social media.
• Upcoming Event: Biden has announced a global summit of democracies to coordinate responses to autocratic governance.

China Policy:

• Strategic Continuity: Both US parties view China as a deepening challenge to American power under Xi Jinping, anticipating a tougher Biden stance than previous administrations.
• Methodology: The Biden administration aims to prosecute the rivalry with greater certainty and less impulsivity compared to the Trump era.
• Tariffs: While the political approach may change, the underlying tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to remain as leverage for future negotiations.
• Climate Cooperation: The US and China, as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters, are critical partners for global climate action.

Climate Change Agenda:

• Paris Accord: The US will formally rejoin the agreement, reversing Trump's withdrawal.
• Domestic Targets: Biden aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
• Projected Impact: Modeling suggests this target could reduce end-of-century temperature projections by 0.1°C.
• Timeline: Aiming to formally submit targets before the COP26 UN climate summit in November to demonstrate global reliability.

Nuclear Arms Control and Geopolitics:

• Russia: Urgent priority is extending the New START nuclear treaty, which expires in early February; failure to extend it would be "hugely problematic" for superpower trust.
• Iran: Biden seeks to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal, though this faces hurdles due to Iran's ramped-up nuclear activities since the 2018 US withdrawal.
• Diplomatic Constraint: Reviving the Iran deal requires reconstituting the original European, Russian, and Chinese coalition.

Domestic Constraints and Legislative Strategy:

• Executive Action: Many Trump-era policies can be reversed via executive order without congressional approval.
• Legislative Hurdle: Long-term structural shifts require passing legislation through Congress.
• Congressional Landscape: Democrats hold unified but slim control of the Senate and House, limiting the scope of achievable far-reaching reforms.

Long-Term Political Risks:

• Trust Deficit: Allies and global partners harbor suspicion that US democracy remains fragile and prone to instability.
• Senate Trial: A Senate conviction of Trump for inciting insurrection is viewed as a potential signal to the world that US checks and balances remain functional.
• Core Challenge: Biden's ability to heal domestic division is a prerequisite for restoring America's role as a global leader; failure to do so could permanently tarnish US soft power.