How Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is making America weaker | The Economist

Enforcement Trends and Deportations

• Recent deportation and arrest operations have shifted geographically from the southern border to the interior of the United States.
• The administration claims to have deported approximately one million people, though DHS statistics are currently unverified.
• ICE recorded a record 50,000 arrests in July alone, primarily targeting individuals without criminal records.
• Deportation destinations have expanded to include nations such as Liberia and South Sudan, including individuals with temporary protected status (TPS).
• The administration is revoking TPS for nationals from countries deemed unsafe by prior administrations, such as Haiti and Afghanistan.
• Critics argue that making TPS holders "illegal" and subsequently deporting them is logistically easier than deporting individuals who entered the country illegally decades ago, as the latter group is unknown to authorities.
• The estimated cost to deport a single individual is approximately $17,000.

Legal and Asylum Policy Shifts

• The administration has effectively halted irregular migration by refusing the vast majority of asylum requests, bringing southern border crossings to near zero.
• Legal migration has been constrained through the slow-walking of visa applications and the strict alteration of application criteria.
• A specific policy froze immigrant visa processing for roughly 75 countries labeled as "shithole countries" by the president, a move a court recently ruled illegal.
• The administration continues to stall on workarounds following court rulings, including pausing training for embassy staff.
• Current visa processing restrictions effectively bar certain American citizens from living with their foreign spouses from designated countries, drawing comparisons to pre-1967 anti-miscegenation laws.

Immigration to the US for Students and Workers

• The issuance of student visas declined by 29% last year according to the Brookings Institution.
• New H-1B visa application fees now exceed $100,000.
• New student visa rules mandate faster degree completion than the average American timeline and require graduates to secure employment within 30 days or depart.
• The administration's approach treats the influx of foreign talent as a problem to be solved rather than an economic asset.

Economic and Workforce Implications

• The US labor force has shrunk by approximately one million people since January.
• The decline in the labor force shifts the burden of national debt to fewer future workers.
• The 29% drop in student visas is identified as a precursor to a long-term contraction in the supply of top-tier global talent.
• Labor shortages are already evident in sectors such as construction due to the reduced workforce.
• Policy signals of hostility toward specific ethnic groups and nations are expected to deter high-skilled immigrants who have the choice to relocate elsewhere.