Educational Video, Lecture
How El Niño and La Niña cause extreme weather
- Forecasters anticipate the development of a "Godzilla El Niño," potentially stronger than the 1997 event and described as "the climate event of the century."
- Typical ENSO feedback mechanisms are expected to cause the event to end within a nine to 12 month timeframe.
- The phase is predicted to bring drier and warmer conditions to the northern United States, Canada, Central America, parts of Brazil, Asia, Australia, and Singapore, while intensifying the risk of fires in Australia.
- Conversely, the event is expected to deliver increased rainfall and flooding to Peru, East Africa, and the East Central Tropical Pacific, with a specific prediction for even more rain in the latter region.
- West Africa is projected to experience drier conditions, while intense tropical storms are forecast to become significantly more likely along the west coast of the Americas.
- Global temperatures are generally expected to rise during El Niño years due to oceanic heat release, though a transition to La Niña is predicted to suppress global temperatures until a subsequent warm phase.
- Scientists observe a trend of intensifying El Niño and La Niña phases since 1950 and note that ENSO will likely remain a dominant force in influencing Earth's climate.
- Global heating is expected to increase rainfall variability over the East Central Tropical Pacific, resulting in wetter conditions during El Niño and drier conditions during La Niña.
- Climate models currently diverge on the exact future appearance of ENSO in a warmer world, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lacks consensus regarding changes to ENSO-related sea surface temperatures over the next century.