Interview
How emerging technologies could affect national security | Helen Toner
- AI is projected to exert increasing influence on warfare, intelligence gathering, and international relations, with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) prioritizing this intersection as a focus for the next couple of years.
- Current job market data indicates 113 operations-related roles and 70 AI strategy and governance positions, though competition for operations management careers in high-impact organizations has intensified over the last 12 months.
- CSET plans to publish longer reports with accessible versions within the next few months, release an immigration policy report recommending H-1B and Green Card tweaks, and aim to train the next generation of technical-policy leaders, though its six-month operational history introduces uncertainty regarding future developments.
- Experts warn that restricting AI research or publishing could drive top researchers to Canada, the UK, or elsewhere, potentially reducing US technological development, while the US holds a net importer position of approximately 190,000 inventors annually and faces significant hurdles in becoming a talent hub for those with extensive China travel or anti-China views due to security clearance and visa constraints.
- National security strategy is expected to prioritize fixing digital infrastructure and cybersecurity over autonomous weapons, as machine learning systems are currently too brittle for dynamic battlefields, procurement cycles are slow, and the first major security impacts will likely emerge in cybersecurity due to fast feedback loops for simulation.
- US strategy should not attempt to out-China China but instead double down on liberal democratic values, as the shift to antagonism is seen as inevitable and mixing trade with security undermines credibility, while China's focus remains on domestic stability and control rather than international expansion.
- Market expectations for AI are currently inflated, with technology likely having a smaller immediate impact but a much larger long-term effect, and the "data is the new oil" analogy is considered misleading due to data's non-rival nature and specific application requirements.
- Career leverage in this field is associated with having at least an advanced beginner level of knowledge in China or machine learning, with acquiring such expertise best achieved through 6 months to 2 years of in-country immersion to cement language skills.