Interview, Conference Presentation
How is Russia testing the West?
- Russia currently exhibits higher risk tolerance due to its perception of being in a state of conflict, yet recent escalations may have been curtailed following the realization that such activities carry serious risks of triggering a war Russia wishes to avoid.
- Both Russia and the West are currently calibrating responses to deter adversary activities while simultaneously attempting to prevent accidental escalation.
- China is described as a calculating, cautious power that avoids full alliance with Russia due to Russian recklessness, preferring a stable economic order over the chaotic environment Russia appears to exploit.
- Russia perceives itself as under siege by the West, interpreting Ukrainian drone attacks, explosions at air bases, and other strikes as direct Western aggression against its homeland.
- Western society must transition from a reliance solely on deterrence to building resilience against a new continuum of conflict, including anticipated increases in reconnaissance, sabotage, cyber attacks, and arson.
- Political interference by Russia is expanding to include efforts to stir internal tensions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and protests within Western democracies, particularly in the UK and Poland.
- Russian leadership maintains a conviction that Western intelligence services are already engaged in stirring ethnic tensions within Russia and bordering Central Asian nations, despite limited visible evidence of such disinformation or sabotage campaigns by the West.
- Russia frames Ukrainian strikes on its infrastructure as actions conducted through a Western proxy, reinforcing a mindset that a low-level conflict, rather than a binary state of war or peace, is already underway.
- The conflict is characterized as a continuum ranging from no action to all-out war, complicating legal and historical distinctions, similar to the "gig economy" blurring of traditional employment categories.
- Russia is employing unconventional tactics, including hiring pro-Russian Ukrainians to carry out attacks across Europe to create ambiguity and undermine political support for Ukraine.
- Russia benefits from global chaos and views the current international order as Western-dominated, aiming to dismantle it in favor of a multipolar system that allows it greater operational freedom.
- The Russian strategic objective involves keeping the West off-balance, divided, and weak by actively undermining institutions backed by Western nations.