Interview, Fireside Chat
How long will Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade war truce last?
- The trade truce is expected to last one year, preventing new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, postponing reciprocal tariffs and export controls scheduled for November 10th, and delaying shipping-related measures for 12 months.
- China plans to intensify efforts to curb the fentanyl trade in exchange for the US reducing a 20% tariff rate by half.
- Leaders have agreed to reciprocal visits next year, while the broader US-China contest for economic and military superiority is expected to persist.
- Uncertainty regarding the deal's longevity exists due to the potential for annual renegotiations and the continuation of an investigation into 2020 agreement violations.
- A final deal may be signed soon, though specific details remain unconfirmed.
- Considerable risks exist that the agreement could unravel within the next few months due to negotiator misunderstandings, misinterpretations, or unrelated crises.
- The truce is not expected to resolve deeper structural issues, particularly those related to China's industrial policy.
- Military tensions, especially regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan, are expected to remain extremely high, with stability in the bilateral relationship projected to require a long timeframe to achieve.