Interview, Podcast
How to ensure the US remains a democratic country | Mike Berkowitz (2021)
- Sustaining liberal democracy in the United States is anticipated as a primary objective for the next 50 to 100 years, requiring proactive human effort against internal and external threats.
- The decline of democracy is expected to manifest over the coming decades as a subtle erosion of the rule of law, separation of powers, and individual rights rather than through violent conflict or coups.
- Current toxic polarization is predicted to increase extremism and violence unless social cohesion is rebuilt, with a risk that the Republican Party may retain voters through partisan loyalty even while abandoning democratic norms.
- Future demagogic leaders may be more committed to undermining democracy and restricting civil society than Donald Trump, whose 2020 election contestation is viewed as the culmination of a strategy telegraphed since 2016.
- Legal obligations regarding election administration are expected to change, potentially allowing future attempts to overturn election results to exceed the scope of the 2020 efforts.
- Without structural political reforms, partisan primary incentive structures will continue to produce ideologically extreme candidates.
- Potential structural reforms include moving House primary cycles to every four or six years, expanding automatic voter registration, enhancing mail-in voting capabilities, and eliminating partisan redistricting in favor of independent commissions.
- Voting mechanisms such as ranked choice voting and "final five" voting are expected to act as moderating influences by requiring candidates to appeal beyond their partisan bases.
- A multi-party system is proposed as a potential solution to break up coalitions within large party structures, while voting reform is predicted to be driven by ballot initiatives at city, county, or state levels before scaling up.
- The local journalism industry faces a collapse of the traditional business model, requiring philanthropy to serve as a major revenue driver through nonprofit entities, membership models, and events, with public funding likely emerging at state and local levels.
- Social media platforms are hoped to contribute revenue to local journalism, while contact theory is expected to drive the need for physical interaction across political divides to reduce hostility.
- Building social cohesion requires the emergence of "in-group moderates" willing to criticize their own side's worst impulses and the expansion of organizations like One America and Over Zero.
- Companies are expected to increasingly define lines around defending democracy and opposing authoritarianism, with work on democracy needing to be wrapped in cross-ideological agendas to engage conservative voices.
- The rise of forces such as media restrictions and election interference, previously considered impossible in the United States, is currently being witnessed.
- Solving democratic challenges is predicted to take many decades rather than being resolved in a single election cycle, with future election administrators potentially being less willing to uphold norms if replaced by partisan actors.
- Philanthropy is expected to support election administration directly, alongside efforts to build support among Republicans for voting rights through entities like the Voting Rights Lab.
- The most difficult areas for evaluation in the democracy space are predicted to be advocacy, policy, and social cohesion.
- Message acceptance regarding voting reforms among conservative audiences is expected to be significantly impacted by specific terminology, such as "mail-in" versus "absentee."
- Money alone cannot guarantee the defeat of anti-democratic candidates in deeply uncompetitive districts, and the lack of clarity on effectively combating disinformation on broadcast platforms like Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN remains a challenge.
- Preventing conspiracy theories like QAnon from taking hold is anticipated to be a major advancement for democracy.
- Ongoing ideological dislocations, including conservatives realizing the importance of race and liberals recognizing the dangers of executive aggrandizement, are expected to continue unfolding over the coming decades.
- Existing organizations in the democracy space are expected to consolidate following the current period of civic entrepreneurship, with a significant portion of the "exhausted majority" remaining outside extreme progressive or conservative camps.