Panel, Conference Presentation
Hybrid and Next-Generation Warfare: The Future of Conflict
Milken InstituteMatthew Spence, Henry Crumpton, Geoffrey Ling, Pippa Malmgren, Yasuhide Nakayama, Juan Carlos Pinzón
- Future warfare will increasingly intersect with precision technology and artificial intelligence, including the potential for AI to evolve into AGI capable of controlling human beings, alongside the use of supercomputers projected to shrink to fit 7.3 billion brains into 1.58 gallons of liquid within 10 years.
- The United States risks unseating its technological edge within the next decade by rivals like China, while the timeline for reacting to hypersonic weapons is expected to compress from days to minutes or less, necessitating adaptation in training, logistics, and the reintroduction of celestial navigation due to satellite vulnerabilities.
- Security challenges are expected to shift toward non-state actors such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, and narco criminals, who are projected to pose a greater danger than nation-states within the next 10 years, alongside the continued threat of Russia utilizing hybrid warfare involving proxies and cyber elements.
- Biological threats are predicted to persist as unpredictable offensive forces distinct from short-term nuclear events, while neuroscience is identified as a major frontier where technology may eventually bridge the human brain to liberate individuals from physical confines, yet may also be hacked by high-intelligence actors.
- Geopolitical tensions driven by economic factors, specifically inflation, debt, and food security, are expected to push nations like China and Russia toward conflict, with China's "One Belt, One Road" strategy creating defense relationships in Asia and economic warfare evolving to include digital currency and fast capital movements.
- Military capabilities are expected to evolve through the democratization of technology, allowing individuals to manufacture drones with processing power comparable to defense labs, while new scenarios include hacking leaders' DNA for ransom, potential remote activation of nuclear weapons, and conflict in space involving high-altitude satellite destruction.
- Privacy is projected to become irrelevant for younger generations due to blockchain and surveillance, whereas technology may also enable personalized medicine and food production with minimal resources, though the democratization of these tools creates risks for nefarious use by bad actors.
- Specific threat vectors include North Korean missiles reaching Japanese households in seven minutes and Chinese submarines in the South China Sea deploying missiles with 8,000-kilometer ranges covering Hawaii, Anchorage, San Francisco, and Australia, contributing to a persistent state of war in the East.
- The U.S. is expected to continue investing close to $200 billion annually in R&D, hiring specialists in fields like plant and marine biology to address resource scarcity and climate change, while maintaining a focus on innovation in STEM fields and humanitarian cooperation with Japan.
- Social and human factors remain critical, with concerns that reliance on technical platforms and a reduction in human intelligence sources may diminish empathy and understanding of the human terrain, potentially making the post-conflict peace difficult to achieve without strategies focused on women's empowerment and collaboration.