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I, Claudia: Mexico’s new leader
The EconomistClaudia, Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Sarah Burke, Kinley Salmon, Erin Braun, Daniela Levine-Cava, Dr. Rick Spinrad
- NOAA forecasts an above-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an 85% probability, anticipating 17 to 25 named storms and four to seven major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
- Record storm activity is predicted for the season, driven by above-average sea surface temperatures during peak months from August to October and a 77% chance of La Niña forming within that same timeframe to reduce wind shear.
- Researchers project that storm intensification trends will likely continue as the climate warms, a shift that could reduce the window for evacuation and warning by emergency managers.
- A 23% probability exists for a major hurricane to strike within 50 miles of Miami-Dade County, with the Florida Everglades identified as the area most at risk for landfall.
- Potential scenarios include power outages coinciding with extreme heat in Florida, alongside disruptions to election processes if storms occur in the weeks leading up to November 30th.
- Mexico's Morena coalition holds a two-thirds majority in the lower house and possibly the upper house, enabling constitutional changes, while the country remains a focal point for U.S. supply chain diversification.
- Mexico, Canada, and the United States plan to review the extension of their free trade agreement, with the process expected to be completed by 2036.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the full scope of the new Mexican administration's security plans and whether the opposition will achieve a two-thirds majority in the upper house.