Panel
I, Worker: Employment in the Age of Robots
- AI and automation are predicted to potentially replace 10% to 50% of American jobs, with a specific scenario positing half of all jobs could be taken over in the "not so distant future."
- The percentage of workers aged 55 and older is expected to double within 10 years, contributing to a projected massive labor shortage in 20 years caused by aging societies that will likely require every available robot and human.
- Self-driving trucks are predicted to enter the market within 5 to 25 years, diverging from industry and public estimates of 20 to 40 years, which may reduce driver numbers in the next five years while extending the efficiency of remaining shifts.
- Technology is expected to drive a trajectory where humans spend less time on computer-performable tasks and more time on human-capable activities, with "meaty middle" purchasing power predicted to disappear, creating a demand gap for goods and services.
- A "care economy" involving childcare, elder care, coaching, and medical jobs is forecast to see massive expansion due to demographic shifts regarding aging baby boomers and millennial children.
- Automation is predicted to eliminate routinized physical jobs like carrying items, yet create new categories of demand different from those reduced by past automation, driven by the "labor lump fallacy" that service demand is fixed.
- If technological change is not prepared for, a "revolution" is predicted to occur, while social safety nets, benefits, and education systems will require reconfiguration to accommodate fragmented work, "more work," or "less work."
- Current U.S. government investment in artificial intelligence at approximately one billion dollars annually is predicted to threaten future growth and competitiveness if the technology becomes as transformative as mobile or the internet.
- U.S. policy thinking is predicted to lag five to ten years behind necessary adjustments for the future of work, while recruiting is expected to involve more human recruiters as technology increases process efficiency.
- The future workforce is anticipated to be "technology-enabled" but defined by "humanity," with individuals potentially working across multiple contexts like ride-sharing and e-commerce, while human connection remains essential due to desires to connect and compete.
- The long-term industrial outcome is predicted to resemble the "work without work as we know it now," consisting of purposeful projects such as raising a family or writing a novel.