Fireside Chat, Interview
Ian Bremmer: President and Founder of Eurasia Group
- Over the next decade, US CEOs are expected to generate increased revenue with reduced workforces due to shrinking supply chains and rising labor costs in China, driven by the expectation that human capital will expand 10 to 20 times through digital learning, female economic integration, and growing middle classes in China, India, and Africa.
- China is predicted to accelerate its "One Belt, One Road" strategy and export surveillance and social credit mechanisms to nations such as Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Russia to mitigate vulnerabilities to US leverage, while simultaneously seeking to control key semiconductor supply chain sources to prevent alignment with the United States.
- If the US continues unilateral actions, allies like Italy are expected to be incentivized to join China's initiatives due to eroded trust in US commitments, a trend that may see China exploit European economic weaknesses in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Eastern European nations amidst a long-term geopolitical vulnerability forecast for the next five to ten years.
- Instability in Hong Kong and economic damage from US actions are expected to trigger domestic discontent within China, though the "Orange Revolution" or "Arab Spring" outcomes are considered unlikely due to sophisticated social control technologies; conversely, advanced surveillance is predicted to strengthen state-directed authoritarianism by filtering big data for top-down stability.
- The Trump administration's bilateral negotiations are viewed as constructive and expert-driven, moving China further on specific issues, though the administration avoided seeking changes to Chinese domestic laws based on the assessment that such measures would not effectively protect intellectual property, a stance Xi Jinping reportedly viewed as an attempt to embarrass him.
- Trade deal failure timing is considered unfavorable as it coincided with US economic improvement and concurrent administration issues with Europe and Japan, while the US economy remains strong enough to support further escalation with China, which is also noted as being aligned with US interests regarding corporate footprint reduction.
- European parliamentary elections are expected to show a rise in Euro-skeptic populist parties like Vox and the League, though these groups lack cohesion for a unified movement, with the primary long-term risk being not near-term "Brexit-style" exits but rather increased vulnerability to extreme climate conditions exacerbating refugee crises in nations neighboring Russia.
- The US is expected to refrain from intervening in local 5G implementations in regions like Georgia due to a lack of concern for specific national-level issues, while the probability of direct military conflict between the US and Iran has risen to approximately 10%.
- Iran is predicted to take calculated steps such as threatening enriched uranium caps and attacking Saudi targets to build domestic credibility and pressure Europe and China into expanded business engagement, with the ultimate goal of convincing the international community to grant broader economic access beyond humanitarian aid.