Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Immigration Strategy for the Borderless Economy
Milken InstituteRon Brownstein, Antonio Villaraigosa, Laureen Powell Jobs, Michael Bennett, Carlos Gutierrez, Rupert Murdoch, Vivek Wadhwa
- The U.S. under-18 population is projected to become majority non-white as early as 2018, with the demographic landscape potentially transforming unrecognizably in an ethnic sense over the next 20 to 40 years, while Mexican fertility rates have declined to 2.1 births per woman, down from seven in 1970.
- Immigration reform legislation is anticipated to pass the Senate with approximately 70 votes, representing a necessary first step that includes a 10-year pathway to a green card, three years for citizenship, and a five-year wait specifically for Dreamers and agricultural workers, though the House passage faces significant hurdles due to local district demographics where four-fifths of House Republicans are in areas immune to national demographic shifts.
- Projections indicate that a "startup visa" could contribute 1% to 1.5% to GDP within 10 years and generate tens of thousands of startups employing hundreds of thousands of workers, while the DREAM Act is estimated by McKinsey to provide an immediate economic benefit of $300 billion by transitioning the undocumented workforce into the tax-paying economy.
- Economic risks include a potential 2.3 million shortage in college graduates and specialized degrees in California by 2025 due to the achievement gap, a 5% rate of U.S. college graduates in technology fields compared to 30% in China, and the likelihood that without high-skill H-1B visas, agricultural and R&D sectors will relocate to Mexico and Canada.
- Political risks involve a 30% to 50% chance that comprehensive reform will fail, potentially delaying the issue for another three years due to rising anti-immigrant sentiment, primary challenges from the Republican base, and political capital accumulation concerns, while the failure to pass the bill could result in social unrest similar to European divisions if a legal status without a citizenship path is created.
- Current immigration challenges include a 50% high school dropout rate among undocumented students who may otherwise enter a cash economy, a massive flow of drugs across the Canadian border requiring tighter controls, and a 70% public approval rating for a pathway to citizenship with 51% favoring it within five years.