Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
In Tech We Trust? A Debate with Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen
- Technology is identified as the critical gating factor for future civilization, though current trajectories over the last 40 years show significant stagnation in wages and innovation outside of computing, with energy, biotechnology, and clean tech experiencing deceleration since the 1970s.
- A cultural shift toward risk aversion and excessive regulation is cited as the cause for the slowdown rather than natural limits, creating a risk that the computer revolution may decelerate in the next decade, potentially turning major tech firms into commodities that reduce labor forces and profits.
- The outlook predicts that communication technology will act as a catalyst for innovations across other industries over the next 20 to 30 years, enabling high-quality telepresence to commoditize quickly and reduce the need for physical transportation.
- Specific future developments include self-driving cars expected to be ready soon pending legal changes, traffic optimization systems like Waze, and collaborative consumption services reducing the total number of vehicles on the road.
- Massive energy innovation is projected to be possible anytime subsidies for oil and gas are halted, though there is uncertainty regarding the political will to enact such changes within the speaker's lifetime.
- Regulatory competition among nations is expected to drive the emergence of new innovation centers, with countries like South Korea, Japan, Israel, and the UK potentially leading in embryonic stem cell research, drug development, drone flights, and prediction markets.
- Material expectations for the future include a return to declining work hours and rising wages, which are presented as necessary conditions for an accelerating civilization, alongside the possibility that developing countries will catch up in 10 to 20 years but remain behind in cutting-edge technology.
- Critical risks include a continued lack of imagination, a broken patent system that fails to differentiate innovation from copycat features, financial engineering remaining less viable than computer science, and the potential for recurring credit crises if future progress fails to meet historical expectations.
- Indicators of true innovation progress are expected to include an increasing number of scientists and engineers, a deceleration in the slowdown of life expectancy increases, and a cultural shift where science fiction portrays technology positively.
- The current stagnation is contrasted with the historical period from 1850 to 1970 when work hours steadily decreased, and the speaker warns that the culture of accelerating progress is rare and at great risk of being lost entirely.