Panel, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
In Tech We Trust? A Debate with Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen (updated)
- The computer revolution is projected to potentially accelerate in the years ahead, though this outcome is viewed as a hope rather than a certainty, with the current technological slowdown attributed to cultural risk aversion and over-regulation rather than natural forces.
- Established technology companies such as Cisco, Dell, HP, Oracle, and IBM are expected to transition into commodities, cease innovation, and reduce labor forces and profits over the coming decade, while Microsoft and Apple face risks of entering a "computer rust belt" with declining relevance and innovation.
- Economic indicators suggest a prolonged stagnation, with US wages remaining flat for 40 years and mean wages increasing only 22% from 1973 to 2013 compared to 350% from 1933 to 1973, leading 80% of the population to anticipate the next generation will be less well off.
- A significant contraction in the biotechnology sector is noted, with FDA patent approvals at one-third the rate of 20 years ago, alongside a general deceleration in cleantech and transportation innovation, although solar energy prices have dropped rapidly due to reaching volume.
- Employment growth in the US IT sector slowed from a 100% increase in the 1990s to just 17% since 2000, and companies founded in the late 1990s like Google and Amazon remain valued at two to three times the combined worth of all US tech companies created since the year 2000.
- While energy prices remain significantly higher than in 1972 with the US yet to recover from 1970s oil shocks, specific sub-sectors show activity, including massive technical innovation in wind, geothermal, and biofuels over the last 10 years, though these often stall when reaching within 2x the price performance of subsidized oil and gas.
- The automotive and transportation landscape features electric cars making significant advances in the last 10 years with uncertain long-term economics if subsidies persist, self-driving cars approaching reality with commercial launches imminent, and traffic optimization systems potentially reducing the need for new infrastructure if adoption is universal.
- Global metrics indicate a rise in natural science and engineering degrees from 2.0 to 3.7 million between 2000 and 2008, and an increase in researchers from 3.9 million in 1995 to 5.7 million in 2007, yet the number of US public companies fell from 8,800 in 1997 to 4,100 currently.
- Innovation centers are heavily concentrated in Silicon Valley, with emerging markets like Brazil, China, and India currently far behind but potentially capable of significant ground-up innovation in 10 to 20 years, particularly where regulatory constraints like banking systems are absent.
- Regulatory environments are shifting, with deregulation in the US space sector enabling businesses like SpaceX, while countries like Israel and South Korea are creating new innovation hubs in specific fields, though a tipping point regarding FDA regulation remains a key area of interest.
- Cultural factors are identified as critical risks to future progress, including a loss of the "culture of accelerating progress," a broken patent system unable to distinguish innovation from copying, and a societal savings rate of negative six percent that suggests a failure to meet past expectations.
- Historical predictions, such as J.J. Zevon Schreiber's 1990s expectation of a four-day workweek by the year 2000, failed to materialize, and the stagnation of life expectancy growth since 1970 is cited as a critical indicator of the depth of current societal challenges.