Panel, Fireside Chat
India's Great Strides
- Business journalism's center of gravity is expected to have shifted to China and India by 2004-2005, creating demand for a new newspaper targeting 300 to 400 million new media consumers driven by rising literacy.
- Demographic projections indicate India's average population age will reach 29 by 2020, with 50% under 25 and 65% under 35, though divergence between states is anticipated, ranging from an average age of 19 in Bihar to 31 in Tamil Nadu.
- English-language print media is predicted to remain aspirational for rural-to-urban migrants, while regional language content creation may decline in favor of English due to internet phenomena, despite revenue potential currently favoring English infrastructure.
- The political outlook for 2019 predicts Prime Minister Modi leading the BJP as the largest party in a coalition rather than a single-party majority, with limited ability to expand vote share in new electorates to offset potential losses in states like Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
- The BJP is expected to hold the Rajya Sabha in 2018, removing legislative vetoes, while Modi is projected to secure a second term due to perceived administrative cleanliness and social media engagement.
- India's foreign policy strategy aims for 8% to 10% economic growth to secure geopolitical standing, with U.S.-India relations prioritized for "win-win" transactions despite potential rhetorical shifts, and a possibility that India joins the CPEC to influence it internally.
- Fintech innovation is predicted to surge from a combination of digital identity, zero-balance accounts, and low-cost 4G, creating a "perfect storm" that could enable micropayment models for digital media following a 23x increase in digital payments post-demonetization.
- Economic reforms, including the GST rollout scheduled for July 1, are expected to potentially add up to 2% to GDP growth, provided the administrative capacity is sufficient to prevent chaos; however, land, labor, and governance reforms face significant political hurdles.
- Physical infrastructure development faces delays, such as five-year timelines for roads, whereas digital solutions offer immediate political impact, though the government remains the primary actor expected to resolve the digital divide between urban and rural tiers.
- The private sector in education is expected to expand among a limited list of licensed players, while Indian businesses will continue global expansion in IT, pharmaceuticals, and entertainment despite an overburdened court system that hinders business unless arbitration alternatives are established.