Panel, Conference Presentation
Infectious Diseases: Staying One Step Ahead
- Sanofi Pasteur anticipates continued infectious disease clusters and plans to transition from reactive outbreak response to prevention by building resilient health systems, specifically launching Dengue vaccines in endemic countries like Mexico and the Philippines to bypass the typical five to ten-year ramp-up delays, though the current innovative model is not necessarily replicable for other epidemic vaccines.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the increasing velocity of disease spread and the potential for Zika reproduction or expansion into new areas due to evolving transmission modes such as sexual transmission, alongside a lack of knowledge about which specific pathogen will emerge next, where it will strike, or its exact health implications.
- Without modern technology, an outbreak like Zika entering Brazil 20 to 30 years ago likely would have become endemic and unexplained; conversely, current capabilities allow for real-time visibility to enable focused responses, though risks persist if an outbreak reaches a critical point in a region with fragile infrastructure, potentially exhausting personnel, equipment, and medical supplies beyond the local capacity to absorb international intervention.
- The reactive approach utilized during the Ebola crisis is deemed ineffective and unsustainable; while at least two Ebola vaccines are predicted to be effective for future outbreaks despite being developed seven to ten months ago using validated platform technologies compared to the usual ten to twenty years, the industry must adopt a proactive stance for unpredictable future pathogens, as identifying the next threat in advance is impossible.
- Developing and delivering a vaccine for Zika and future pathogens to millions is projected to take more than two years unless risk assessments permit large-scale clinical trials involving thousands or tens of thousands of people, a necessity driven by safety concerns such as the potential for microcephaly and the requirement for scalable production to avoid stalling efforts once a threat recedes.
- A tremendous gap in basic scientific information regarding Zika requires immediate attention to understand the virus's unique features, while a universal approach to immunity against flu, coronaviruses, and flaviviruses is expected to foster comprehensive prevention strategies, though current technology cannot prevent outbreaks and must focus on rapid recognition and response.
- A 1918-style flu strain is predicted as a real and present danger that could cause tens or hundreds of millions of deaths if manufacturing sites are not pre-built, though adjuvant platform technology could multiply flu vaccine production by five to make responses more feasible.
- Threats in fragile states are expected to amplify and reach the US, UK, and collective populations via air travel within days, creating a risk that if technology and vaccines are not rolled out in parallel with health system investments in areas like Liberia and South Sudan, the impact of research dollars will be negated.
- International Medical Corps advocates for an all-hazards approach and expects therapeutic results from "z-mab" to serve as a precedent for future clinical trials, while emphasizing that the "ebb and flow" strategy driven by inconsistent political will and funding is dangerous; the sector must ensure coordinated collective responses move from words to practice to prevent future epidemics from reaching a breaking point.
- The industry recognizes that the next pathogen cannot be identified in advance and that without large clinical trials and sustained funding, efforts to tackle diseases will stall, whereas consistent investment and the use of validated platforms could accelerate vaccine development from the standard decade-plus timeline to a seven-to-ten-month window.