Oct 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ETInterview

Inside the Revival of Venture Capital Liquidity with an Industry Pioneer

The venture secondary market is projected to exceed the primary market in size, driven by the compounding of illiquidity and the "multiplier effect" where secondary transactions themselves are traded again.
Total capital sitting in the system is estimated between $1 trillion and $3 trillion, far exceeding the capacity of current IPO and M&A exits to provide sufficient liquidity.
Historical average distributions from venture funds have dropped from approximately 20% per year to just 5–10% annually over the last five years.
The average hold period for venture-backed companies before an IPO has extended to 14 years, necessitating intermediate liquidity solutions.
Participants are increasingly utilizing secondaries not just for distressed exits, but for profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing, and risk management after significant gains.
Transaction volume is accelerating as market transparency improves, allowing buyers and sellers to price assets with greater confidence compared to historical illiquidity.

Market performance is bifurcating into two distinct cohorts: companies adopting AI-first architectures are seeing hyper-growth, while older firms failing to integrate AI face de-acceleration.
Approximately 1,000 to 2,000 of the 30,000+ private companies are AI-funded, leaving over 25,000 pre-AI companies with potential for reinvention through vertical integration.
Pricing risk for high-growth AI assets involves evaluating the durability of moats against rapid technological disruption, as competition can stall private growth faster than in previous cycles.
A shift toward "tech buyout" strategies is anticipated, where funds aggregate multiple companies in a sector to prioritize cash flow and profitability over pure revenue growth.
Valuation marks (NAV) are becoming increasingly polarized, with some assets significantly overvalued or undervalued based on AI adoption rates within their specific sectors.

Hans Wildens agreed to combine Industry Ventures with Goldman Sachs Asset Management in January 2026, scaling the firm to roughly $7 billion in assets under supervision.
The acquisition is structured as a third phase of "success" designed to institutionalize the business, leverage Goldman's global sourcing engine, and maintain competitive positioning.
Secondary transactions are now categorized into three distinct buckets: direct single-stock trades, Limited Partnership (LP) interest sales in funds, and "special situations" like continuation funds (CVs).
The market is evolving to allow LPs to exit specific funds at different times to fund new commitments, generating additional trading activity within the secondary structure.
Continuation funds are increasingly used to reset hold periods and restructure portfolios, extending the life of private assets that are not yet ready for public markets.

Wildens predicts a collision between the digital and physical AI markets by 2030, driving innovation in hardware-enabled daily life applications.
Significant growth opportunities are expected in healthcare transformation, financial services, U.S. re-industrialization, military complex modernization, and space mining/settlement.
The firm expects to see a continued acceleration in IPO and M&A activity over the next five years, though current volumes remain insufficient to absorb the total capital pool.
Future liquidity solutions will likely focus on "tenders in companies" during primary financing events to allow employees and shareholders to monetize stakes without forcing a public exit.
Investment strategy will increasingly rely on precise portfolio construction and risk sizing to manage high loss rates, which are higher in the venture market than in other equity classes.

Wildens attributes his investment success to a "player-coach" background as a founder, operator, LP, and secondary investor, providing a holistic view of the company lifecycle.
He identifies the primary challenge in asset management as proving track records and compounding capital through multiple market drawdowns over long durations.
His core investment philosophy centers on maintaining deep expertise in a specific sector over 20–30 years to become a definitive expert in that domain.
Wildens views the current technological environment as a "platform shift" comparable to the beginning of the internet era, describing it as the most exciting time for investing in his career.
He distinguishes between the faster feedback loops of building software companies versus the long-duration, high-complexity nature of building an investment fund.