Panel, Conference Presentation
Institutional Investors: Charting the Course | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteChristopher Ailman, Justin Barton, Jenny Chan, Edwin Denson, Jonathan Glidden, Guadalupe Rodriguez, Chris
- GDP forecast plans drafted in December and early February for the 2025–2026 period are expected to become obsolete due to anticipated changes in the economic landscape.
- Delta Pension aims to maintain a high gap-funded status and target a 7% return for 2025 without incurring losses, with a defined benefit liability duration of 8.5 years.
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board requires a 6.8% long-term return to ensure pension stability, with benefit adjustments tied to 5% annualized returns over a five-year trailing period.
- The UCLA Foundation projects a 5% real rate of return into perpetuity, though this target faces challenges if inflation rises or interest rates fall.
- The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia aims to sustain a double A credit rating to fund research, though it faces a regime change that may create opportunities for non-U.S. partners.
- Delta plans to match employee 401k contributions at 9% against a 6% employee deferral for a total of 15%, while maintaining an expense ratio below 10 basis points.
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board currently holds approximately 30% private exposure and intends to increase holdings to an equilibrium range of 33% to 35% at favorable prices.
- Delta intends to shift treasury allocations from long-duration and 10-to-20-year treasuries to 1-to-3-year treasuries, increasing mortgage-backed exposure while reducing leverage.
- Delta projects an increase in private credit exposure and a decrease in private equity exposure, anticipating that private credit may outperform private equity due to rising retail money.
- Delta plans to exit LP secondaries investments in 2025 due to unattractive resale values, which can range from 65 to 72 cents on the dollar.
- Delta anticipates a "barbell decision" strategy involving either short-term risk transfer with insurers or generating a surplus over a multi-decade period.
- Delta expects an $1.3 billion annual employer contribution to its 401k plan and is exploring options to augment retirement plans given its overfunded pension status.
- The UCLA portfolio maintains a significant bias toward equities, with a 10% to 12% hedge fund allocation and plans to increase non-U.S. public equity investment.
- UCLA expects a 40% year-on-year increase in private equity distributions, matching levels seen in 2021 and 2022.
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board plans to expand into European private equity and private debt while maintaining a tilt toward emerging markets, including a long-term lean toward China.
- Delta expects a stagflationary environment and plans to increase exposure to precious metals, infrastructure, residential real estate, maritime, and aviation lending.
- Delta anticipates the S&P to be slightly higher by the end of 2025, whereas the UCLA Foundation and other panelists expect the index to be slightly lower.
- The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia expects the year-end to be lower due to an ongoing recession and plans to focus on cash-flow underwriting to account for tariff impacts.
- Delta views Chinese assets as cheap long-term but expresses caution regarding regulatory environments and growth flow-through, preferring European assets.
- Delta expects Bitcoin to underperform relative to expectations despite sector growth, while the UCLA portfolio views the asset class differently.
- The panel anticipates a future dominated by private markets, including private equity and venture capital, with a shift away from public portfolio plays.
- Specific investment themes include nearshoring in Mexico, the digitization of healthcare, biotech, and non-U.S. small caps, with UCLA specifically targeting the China A-share market.
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board plans a strategic wait-and-see approach regarding asset allocation until trade, immigration, and tax policies are finalized.
- Delta anticipates difficulty in transacting with insurance companies regarding private equity or real assets, often necessitating discounts or secondary transactions.
- Delta expects resale values for long-tail private equity portfolios in the secondary market to remain poor, justifying a stop to such investments in 2025.
- The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia does not currently expect to purchase Yale's venture capital portfolios but may consider sellers if other levers are not prioritized.
- UCLA plans to avoid secondary transactions that do not align with its targeted managers, preferring direct investments or specific portfolio structures.
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board acknowledges that planning for horizons beyond 10 years, such as 30 to 50 years, lacks certainty due to unforeseen global changes.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects the United States to remain the dominant market and plans to invest in structured deals, cash flow assets, and megatrends like border security and supply chain.
- Delta anticipates that increasing retail money may reduce the relative outperformance of private equity compared to private credit in future years.
- Jenny Heeter identifies a higher entry bar for hedge funds and notes mixed performance, though she sees potential for increased allocation.
- Justin Burton notes a shift in the credit and fixed income space where hurdle rates are now achievable through returns higher up in the capital structure, moving from near zero to around 10 percent.
- Jonathan Glidden expects to engage with insurance companies soon or maximize surplus value, explicitly stating they will not trade tactically around target date fund glide paths.
- Justin Burton plans to seek alpha in non-U.S. public equity markets where he perceives less efficiency, while maintaining a 10% to 12% hedge fund allocation.
- Edwin Dennison expects to remain reactive through the end of June or longer, relying on managers to capitalize on market dislocations.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez plans to be a buyer of U.S. real estate and anticipates a 10-to-20-year generational capital transition emphasizing impact investing.
- Justin Burton expects biotech and non-U.S. small caps to be key areas for excitement and alpha generation.
- Delta anticipates that if an insurance transaction is required, they may have to accept a discount, as insurers generally dislike private equity and private real assets.
- The UCLA Foundation expects to see secondary transactions resembling portfolios of non-targeted managers, leading to avoidance of such purchases.
- Jonathan Glidden anticipates that the 7% assumed rate of return is appropriate based on triangulating funded status and contribution risk.
- Jenny Heeter expects asset managers to identify clear beneficiaries and losers from tariff changes while focusing on underwriting business cash flows.
- Delta expects to increase exposure to real assets and lending behind them, including maritime and aviation lending, while reducing leverage and exposure to contraction-vulnerable assets.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez continues a crypto and blockchain strategy called Alpha to Omega and plans to invest behind megatrends including nearshoring and healthcare digitization.
- Jonathan Glidden anticipates a "barbell decision" for Delta involving short-term risk transfer agreements with insurance companies or generating a surplus over a multi-decade period.
- Delta plans to move out of long-duration and 10-to-20-year treasuries and into 1-to-3-year treasuries, while diversifying treasury exposure with mortgage-backed exposure.
- Delta plans to bring down private equity exposure and increase private credit exposure on the margin.
- Jonathan Glidden expects to engage with an insurance company soon or maximize the value of a surplus over time, noting that they will not trade tactically around the target date fund glide path.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects the United States to remain the dominant market for the foreseeable future.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects to focus on structured deals, cash flow assets, and deep trends bringing together technology with geopolitical issues like border security, supply chain, and nearshoring.
- Justin Burton expects to continue maintaining a significant bias towards equities in the UCLA portfolio and plans to spend time and effort in non-U.S. public equity markets where he sees less efficiency and more opportunity for alpha.
- Justin Burton expects to pick up returns higher up in the capital structure in the credit and fixed income space to meet hurdle rates, noting a shift from nearly zero percent to around 10 percent in those areas.
- Jenny Heeter expects the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia to be in the midst of a regime change that brings interesting opportunities for non-U.S. partners.
- Edwin Dennison expects to increase and explore opportunities in Europe within private equity and private debt.
- Jenny Heeter expects to see activity in the market regarding the sale of venture capital portfolios from institutions like Yale, but does not currently expect to be a buyer, possibly considering sellers if other levers are not prioritized.
- Edwin Dennison expects to be buyers at the right price to reach an equilibrium private exposure between 33% and 35%, currently sitting at about 30%.
- Jonathan Glidden expects private equity to do well but believes it may not do as much better compared to private credit as in years past due to increased retail money.
- Jonathan Glidden expects that if an insurance company transaction is required, they may have to take a discount or engage in a secondary transaction, as insurance companies do not like private equity or private real assets.
- Jonathan Glidden expects that resale values for long-tail private equity portfolios or venture capital in the secondary market are often poor, sometimes as low as 65 to 72 cents on the dollar.
- Jonathan Glidden expects to stop investing in LP secondaries in 2025 because the resale value is not sufficient to justify the hit.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects the future to be in private markets, including private equity and venture capital, and notes a decrease in public portfolio plays in favor of increasing private market allocations.
- Justin Burton expects a 40% increase in distributions in the UCLA private equity portfolio year-on-year, noting they are seeing distributions on the order of 2021 and 2022.
- Justin Burton expects to see secondary transactions in the private equity market that resemble portfolios of managers they are not necessarily targeted at, leading them to avoid buying them.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects to wait and see how colleagues react to new opportunities arising from changes in university asset management.
- Jonathan Glidden expects an increased chance of a stagflationary environment and anticipates shifting assets into those that historically benefit, such as precious metals, infrastructure investments, residential real estate, and specific commercial real estate pockets.
- Jonathan Glidden expects to increase exposure to real assets and lending behind them, including maritime and aviation lending, while considering reducing leverage and exposure to assets that struggle in economic contractions.
- Edwin Dennison expects to remain in a reactive mode, looking for dislocations between now and the end of June or further out, and relying on internal and external managers to take advantage of them.
- Jenny Heeter expects asset managers to factor in changes in the impact of tariffs, identifying clear beneficiaries and losers, while her team will focus on underwriting businesses with cash flows rather than predicting market prices.
- Jonathan Glidden expects the Delta 401k plan to receive a $1.3 billion employer contribution per year and is looking for ways to potentially augment retirement plans given the overfunded pension status.
- Jenny Heeter expects to take up a little more in hedge funds, noting that the bar for entry is higher and performance has been mixed, though she sees them as a potentially attractive place now.
- Justin Burton expects the UCLA hedge fund allocation to remain at 10 to 12%, noting high correlation to markets and liquidity issues make them a poor fit compared to other strategies like Portable Alpha on CLOs.
- Jonathan Glidden expects Bitcoin to have been a "big play" space that has not performed as well as anticipated despite growth in the sector.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects to continue playing a crypto and blockchain strategy called Alpha to Omega as a specific direction.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects to invest behind megatrends such as nearshoring in Mexico and the digitization of traditional industries, particularly health care.
- Jonathan Glidden expects the S&P to be slightly higher by the end of 2025, though others on the panel expect it to be lower.
- Jonathan Glidden expects the 7% assumed rate of return for Delta to be a good number based on triangulating funded status risk and contribution risk.
- Jenny Heeter expects to have the year end a little lower due to a recession that she believes has been occurring for some time and does not see things shifting soon.
- Jonathan Glidden expects Chinese assets to be cheap long-term but worries about the regulatory environment and the poor historical flow-through of Chinese growth to asset appreciation, preferring Europe over China if forced to choose.
- Edwin Dennison expects a tilt toward emerging markets versus the US and Europe, leaning long China over the longer term.
- Justin Burton expects the S&P to be slightly lower by the end of 2025, viewing it as a "sucker's bet" to be higher.
- Guadalupe Rodriguez expects to be a buyer of U.S. real estate and anticipates a 10 to 20-year transition in capital between generations where impact investing will become very serious.
- Justin Burton expects biotech to be a huge area of excitement, while also identifying non-U.S. small caps and the China A-share market as exciting places for alpha generation.