Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Investing in a Shifting Economic Climate: The Asia-Pacific Outlook | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteSarah Williamson, Mohamed Albadr, David Elia, Kate Galvin, Vasyl Nair, Pandu Sjahrir, David Allier
- Mubadala targets a portfolio allocation of approximately 40% private equity, 25% public equities, and 15% real estate and infrastructure, with plans to increase Asia exposure from roughly 13% to 25% over the next 5 to 10 years.
- Mubadala anticipates India's GDP compounding at 6% to 7% annually and projects China's growth at 4% to 5% contingent on a deal occurring within the next few quarters, while focusing on currency curve protection and expecting the RMB to trend toward 7.4 per dollar.
- Host Plus intends to maintain an outsourced asset management structure while deploying cash into U.S. opportunities and rotating into private credit and real assets, potentially increasing U.S. allocation from its current 30% and exploring frontier markets like Bangladesh and Kazakhstan.
- Host Plus expects Australian Labor Party re-election and government housing supply plans to provide certainty for long-term superannuation deployment, while hedging approximately 24% to 25% of international currency exposures.
- The Victorian Funds Management Corporation (VFMC) notes the risk of valuation pressure from high concentration if Australian funds repatriate capital, and is initiating private credit investments in India alongside interest in Japan and Vietnam.
- VFMC is considering increased hedging against the U.S. dollar and investing in jurisdictions experiencing a "China plus one" dynamic, while expressing caution regarding the impact of domestic fund concentration on valuations.
- Team Super remains committed to U.S. investment without aggressively shifting to Europe, emerging markets, or the UK, though it is currently reweighting down the MAG-7 by about 3.5% to increase emerging market exposure, particularly in Asia.
- Team Super is not calling for a fundamental realignment of U.S. debt primacy but anticipates some rotation away from U.S. Treasuries, showing increased positivity toward Australian duration due to marginal confidence losses in U.S. fixed income.
- Danantara projects generating over $10 billion in dividends for every 1% business improvement, totaling $50 billion to $80 billion over five years, while planning a $2 billion co-investment partnership with a U.S. entity.
- Danantara plans to acquire businesses abroad in digital infrastructure and energy upstream sectors, and its state-owned enterprises may consolidate assets abroad in lithium and critical minerals, though investment activity is expected to be conservative and liquid for the next 12 months.
- Danantara anticipates Indonesia's economy growing at 5% with inflation under 2% and Jakarta's GDP per capita rising 8% to 10%, while planning to create Special Economic Zones in Bali for healthcare and tourism to attract talent.
- Mubadala seeks to acquire cash-flowing businesses regardless of volatility, aiming for consistent returns, while expecting a positive symbiotic outcome in U.S.-China relations if dialogue and connectivity are established.
- Pandusha Hrier highlights risks regarding U.S. brain drain, a declining STEM score, and the potential for accelerated trends that could reverse innovation, contrasting these with Indonesia's relatively low leverage with debt-to-GDP at 40% and debt-to-EBITDA maxing at 1.5 to 2 times.
- Danantara intends to retain businesses for the long term rather than selling positions through state-owned enterprises or public markets, and bases its investment practices on worst-case scenarios for the next decade or two.
- Mubadala, Host Plus, and Danantara all identify significant opportunities in Southeast Asia, India, and Indonesia, with Mubadala noting a paradigm shift in the regional private equity market and Host Plus seeing potential benefits for emerging markets like China, India, and Vietnam from tariff wars.
- Vas notes a potential U.S. currency devaluation to maintain productivity as part of the long-term investment thesis, while emphasizing that market resilience rewards patient investment over multi-decade horizons.