Statement
Iran protests: can they topple the regime?
- Escalating violence by security forces, including killings and blinding, currently poses a significant threat to the regime while young protesters remain committed due to having "burnt too many bridges."
- The transition from a simple uprising to a successful revolution is predicted to require the emergence of a unified leader, a representative body, or a coalition of opposition groups ready to engage with the outside world.
- The duration of the required regime change is expected to be significant, potentially necessitating a timeframe comparable to the 1979 revolution to reach similar fruition.
- A successful revolution is contingent on the regime committing severe mistakes, such as massacres, and on a critical defection by security forces to choose the population over the Supreme Leader to end the hybrid clerical and military rule.
- External powers are expected to shift focus from nuclear deals to developing a transition strategy for a future Iran, which is anticipated to bring regional and global stability.
- Population expectations for the post-regime government include the ability to express freedom of expression and cultural life, such as singing and dancing in the streets.