Is Colombia heading for its most polarised election yet? | The Economist

Election Context: Colombia heads to a presidential election this Sunday featuring three starkly different candidates, all of whom currently remain viable contenders for the presidency.

• Abelardo de la Espiella ("El Tigre"): A hard-right populist candidate known for high-energy rallies featuring supporters in tiger costumes and his own performance in a bulletproof vest.
• Ivan Cepeda: A hard-left candidate who adopts an austere, academic style, carefully reading his speeches while wearing glasses and conservative attire.
• Paloma Valencia: A center-right establishment candidate, granddaughter of a former president and protege of Álvaro Uribe, who campaigns on "decency and realism" rather than populist promises.

Current National Conditions and Voter Sentiment:

• Security Crisis: The nation faces record-high civilian casualties, with more civilians caught in violence than in any point in the last decade.
• Drug Production: Colombia produces two-thirds of the world's cocaine, with production levels currently at record highs.
• Political Assassination: A presidential candidate was assassinated last year, highlighting the extreme volatility of the security situation.
• "Total Peace" Failure: The government's strategy to negotiate with all rebel groups, many of whom are now drug traffickers, has largely failed to reduce violence.
• Economic Sentiment: Despite grim security metrics, voter sentiment toward the economy is positive, driven by recent consumption boosts.
  • The current administration increased the minimum wage by 17%.
  • State overspending and pressure on the central bank to lower rates have created an "artificial" economic pump-up.

Ivan Cepeda (Hard Left) Analysis:

• Positioning: Currently polling strongly, arguably as a favorite, buoyed by the current government's economic performance.
• Personality: Described as severe and serious, contrasting sharply with the "impetuous" nature of former President Gustavo Petro.
• Policy Platform:
  • Promises to continue the failed "Total Peace" negotiations.
  • Advocates for land distribution and significantly increased welfare spending.
  • Proposes state procurement policies that favor small players like community kitchens.
• Strategic Messaging: Actively attempts to assuage business fears regarding a potential slide into the "Venezuelan style" socialist dictatorship, though the opposition remains skeptical.

Abelardo de la Espiella (Hard Right) Analysis:

• Polling Trend: Surging in the polls, drawing comparisons to El Salvador's Nayib Bukele due to his beard and populist style.
• Security Proposals:
  • Promises to build 10 privately run "mega prisons" in the jungle.
  • Suggests mass trials for gang members, characterizing current prisons as "crime universities."
• Controversial Background: Served as legal counsel for Alex Saab, a close ally of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who is now extradited to the US for money laundering.
  • De la Espiella defends this past role using a marital analogy, distinguishing between his work as a defense lawyer and his potential role as a president.
• Public Image: Self-proclaimed "popular" (non-populist) figure known for a "spectacularly perfect smile," though critics view him as a polarizing populist.

Paloma Valencia (Establishment) Analysis:

• Policy Focus:
  • Prioritizes security while addressing the needs of the informal economy.
  • Advocates for education as a top-tier priority.
  • Aspires to become Colombia's first female president.
• Campaign Strategy: Frames her platform as a rejection of populist "cake-eating" in favor of long-term, realistic work.
• Outlook: Currently trailing in the polls; the narrator notes she is struggling to sell "decency" against populist promises, though her traditional party may have stronger ground game mechanics for voter turnout.

Forward-Looking Statements and Predictions:

• Likely Runoff: Experts anticipate the election will likely proceed to a runoff between Abelardo de la Espiella and Ivan Cepeda.
• Nature of Choice: The potential final contest represents an "extraordinarily polarized" choice between a populist hard-right figure and a hard-left figure.
• Uncertainty: Despite the polarization and current polling trends, the narrative emphasizes that any of the three candidates remains capable of winning the presidency.