Is it more effective help strangers or people you know? | Russ Roberts (2020)

Effective Altruism and Career Advice

• Russ Roberts supports the core effective altruism (EA) principle of focusing on results and impact rather than merely making a charitable sacrifice, but is skeptical that data and statistics can reliably identify the most effective charitable interventions.
• Roberts acknowledges that 80,000 Hours and the EA community now focus heavily on career path selection, policy careers, and long-term future shaping, areas where randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are less applicable.
• Roberts argues that career planning is an "art" or "craft" rather than a science, noting that the massive uncertainty and lack of feedback in real-world decision-making prevent the "mastery" of career choices that is possible in fields like sports or chess.
• He illustrates this with his own life trajectory, noting that his career as an economist and podcaster was opportunistic and not the result of a calculated maximization of expected impact, which he views as a valid life path.
• 80,000 Hours counters that while perfect measurement is impossible, providing tools and information on "career capital" (skills, networks, and fit) helps individuals make marginally better decisions under uncertainty.
• Roberts raises concerns about the "expanding moral circle" argument, suggesting that human motivation is often rooted in local identity and national pride (e.g., the reaction to 9/11 in Gander, Newfoundland) and that over-emphasizing global altruism might undermine these effective local motivators.
• He rejects the utilitarian calculus that suggests a parent should not throw a fancy birthday party for their child if the money could save more lives abroad, arguing this misinterprets the nature of human relationships and evolutionary psychology.
• Both speakers agree that historical progress is mixed; while slavery and cruelty have been reduced, the 20th century's genocides and the modern capacity for global destruction via technology suggest we have not necessarily become "better" people in a moral sense.
• Roberts advocates for decentralization and local action over global coordination, citing the risks of creating "national mistakes" through hubris and the difficulty of coordinating international bodies like the UN.
• 80,000 Hours maintains that despite the intractability of global problems like US-China conflict, the potential scale of benefit justifies dedicated research and career effort, even with a high probability of failure.

Trust in Empirical Research and Social Science

• Roberts expresses deep skepticism regarding the reliability of empirical social science and medical research, noting that findings often fail to replicate or are based on small samples (e.g., the deworming study initially cited by EA).
• He points out that while the Deworming the World initiative acknowledged the high probability of limited impact, the public messaging often presented it as a definitive "best buy," illustrating a tendency to overstate certainty.
• The conversation highlights a broader trend where the general public is becoming more skeptical of the consistency and reliability of empirical research in fields like psychology and economics.
• Roberts identifies three main ways people make decisions: common sense, theoretical reasoning, and empirical data, arguing that all three have significant flaws and should be weighted carefully.
• He recounts personal experiences where his "common sense" failed (e.g., the inattentional blindness test where he missed a person in a gorilla suit, and missing a fan in his office), leading him to question the reliability of intuition as a sole guide.
• Regarding the minimum wage, Roberts argues that while empirical studies have become more mixed in recent decades, early evidence was overwhelmingly negative regarding employment effects, and current pro-minimum wage studies may rely on questionable assumptions about firm behavior.
• Roberts is critical of studies on happiness and life satisfaction (e.g., regarding having children), arguing that reducing complex life-altering experiences like parenthood to a scalar "1-10" score is inherently flawed because the decision involves a fundamental identity change rather than a utility calculation.
• He suggests that "transformative experiences" (becoming a parent, becoming religious) cannot be predicted or evaluated by those who have not yet undergone them, making empirical studies on the decision-making process inherently limited.
• The speakers note that while science underpins modern life (e.g., medicine, technology), relying on it as the sole arbiter of truth can lead to overconfidence, particularly when the data is noisy or the theory is weak.

Utilitarianism and Moral Philosophy

• Roberts disputes the utilitarian premise that welfare can be reliably aggregated across individuals to justify policy, arguing that while interpersonal comparisons are possible in extreme cases (e.g., a stubbed toe vs. a car accident), they are not useful or moral at a macro policy level.
• He uses the "Child in the Pond" example to concede that individuals have a moral imperative to sacrifice personal comfort to save a life, but argues this does not justify sweeping utilitarian interventions like confiscatory taxation or ignoring the rights of the few for the benefit of the many.
• Roberts raises the "gladiatorial" objection: most people would find it immoral to execute one innocent person in a gruesome public spectacle to provide a thrill to a million spectators, even if the aggregate happiness increases, indicating that utilitarian calculus fails to capture deontological constraints.
• He is uncomfortable with the idea of trading off the rights of the least skilled workers (who may lose jobs due to minimum wage laws) to benefit the most skilled workers, viewing such trade-offs as fundamentally unjust.
• The speakers discuss the risks of "tyranny" arising from well-intentioned utilitarian planning, noting that public discourse has become increasingly vitriolic, threatening the stability of civil society.
• Roberts suggests that for policy decisions where the welfare gains and losses are finely balanced, there should be a strong presumption in favor of inaction to preserve individual autonomy.
• They agree that while the philosophical idea of aggregating welfare is intellectually stimulating, its practical application in public policy is fraught with danger and potential for abuse.
• Roberts highlights the tension between the "will to do good" and the reality of human nature, suggesting that focusing on immediate, local kindness may be more effective and morally sound than abstract global utilitarianism.

Forward-Looking Statements and Recommendations

• Russ Roberts is currently writing a book focusing on how humans deal with uncertainty, the limitations of data in decision-making, and the role of charity and career choices in a complex world.
• 80,000 Hours continues to prioritize research into global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war and the development of artificial intelligence, believing these issues require dedicated attention despite their intractability.
• Both speakers acknowledge the difficulty of predicting the future, with Roberts emphasizing the need for adaptability and skepticism regarding grand solutions to global problems.
• Host Rob Wiblin recommends listeners access his curated "Top 100 EconTalk Episodes" RSS feed as a starting point for the show's extensive back catalog.
• Specific top recommendations from the host include an interview on potato crisp factory logistics, a history of food ideologies, and a conversation with Christopher Hitchens on George Orwell.