Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
Is lazy parenting OK? | Bryan Caplan (2022)
- Completes a non-fiction graphic novel on housing regulation titled Build Baby Bill, The Science and Ethics of Housing, with future Cato Institute publications contingent on that specific book's success.
- Predicts English will remain the primary U.S. language if 300 million immigrants arrive from diverse countries, but not if 300 million Mandarin-speaking Chinese immigrants arrive.
- Anticipates future generations will view current nuclear war risks with embarrassment, noting current concerns are 100 times the base rate despite the low base rate itself.
- Reverses stance on the global warming "pause" bet with Joram Bauman, stating the pause ended when the wager began, making a return bet highly unlikely.
- Forecasts no future moral condemnation of historical meat-eaters as "savage barbarians" or equivalent to the Holocaust even after synthetic meat becomes available.
- Distinguishes between national unemployment trends being predictive of incumbent voting outcomes versus personal unemployment, which shows low correlation.
- Observes a potential negative 0.1 correlation between income and Republican voting, suggesting wealthier modern Americans lean more toward democracy.
- Projects that 300 million new immigrants from around the world would assimilate highly into existing U.S. culture.
- Critiques current immigration restrictions as causing immense harm, while predicting left-wing groups will not rethink immigration views until multiple terrorist attacks occur.
- Identifies a disconnect within the Effective Altruism community where young members lack cost-benefit analysis regarding global warming and may miss nuclear power benefits due to echo chambers.
- Notes weak deontological intuition in the "surgeon with five patients" scenario but expects strong distinctions in moral weight between killing a squirrel versus a human.
- Argues modern war is rarely defensive due to negligent endangerment of innocents, predicting significant civilian casualties in eastern Ukraine or Crimea if Ukraine wins.
- Characterizes social justice movements as having a mindset that makes the world worse rather than better, citing fanatical behaviors.
- Describes human tendencies to justify bad behavior regarding slavery, apologize for colonialism based on poor historical knowledge, and lie due to social desirability bias.
- Claims the Effective Altruism community often supports practices they believe are good but are actually bad due to a lack of critical inquiry.
- Acknowledges a 23/23 betting record is slightly above initial expectations but notes people will not bet on the world ending by January 1, 2030.
- Maintains that infinite AI intelligence will not convince humans to commit suicide due to the time constraints required for persuasion.
- States that his prepaid bet with Eliezer Yudkowsky regarding the January 1, 2030 world-ending date will not be believed by others unless the event occurs.
- Warns that the status quo of preventing immigration to places like Haiti is morally wrong and results in immense harm to would-be immigrants.
- Expresses regret that EA students generally view global warming as the number one problem without adequate cost-benefit analysis.