Interview, Fireside Chat, Panel
Is Myanmar a failed state?
- Aung San Suu Kyi is projected to remain incarcerated for the remainder of her life, though she may serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations or regain power if a compromise is brokered.
- China aims to protect its Belt and Road investments regardless of the ruling authority, while India seeks to limit Chinese influence in Myanmar as an outlet to the Indian Ocean but remains muted due to internal domestic pressures.
- The UN is expected to issue only strongly worded statements, and Russia will likely support the military to preserve arms sales, making international military intervention by the US or Europe unrealistic.
- Sanctions are anticipated to be limited to smart regimes that inconvenience the generals rather than force regime change, with no genuine efforts expected to repatriate Rohingya refugees despite prior political posturing.
- Regional instability is predicted to intensify due to the proliferation of methamphetamines, increased COVID-19 cases along the Chinese border, and refugee flows affecting neighboring countries.
- The Bamar ethnic majority is beginning to turn against the military, with hundreds or thousands of individuals seeking training in border areas controlled by ethnic militias to engage in guerrilla warfare.
- The conflict currently resembles a civil war with a low-level insurrection, where the shadow government hopes to stretch the army thin by enlisting ethnic militias and encouraging mass defections.
- The most probable outcome is that the military will grind down protests and reassert control, leaving a devastated country that will require years to rebuild its administration and infrastructure.
- Under any prevailing government, the welfare of ordinary Burmese citizens is expected to face significant setbacks, while prolonged economic pressure failing to filter down to rank-and-file soldiers could eventually cause distress within the army.