Is Russia the real winner from the war in Iran? | The Economist

Russia's Strategic Position

• Russia is identified as a potential major beneficiary of the current conflict due to both economic and strategic factors.
  • Military Supply Shifts: Diversion of air defense interceptors (specifically Patriot systems) from Ukraine to Gulf states and the US will increase the number of Russian missiles penetrating Ukrainian defenses within the next 12 months.
  • Sanctions Architecture: US waivers granted to India for energy purchases are viewed as the initial "wedge" indicating potential structural holes in the sanctions regime.
  • Economic Stabilization: External economic shocks have been mitigated by the conflict itself, which provided a "safety net" of fiscal pressure relief and resource consumption that prevented an imminent economic crisis.
  • Negotiation Incentives: The improved economic breathing room reduces Russia's immediate incentive to negotiate, pushing the prospect of a diplomatic deal further away.
  • Forward-looking Statement: Despite better economic conditions, Russia's primary constraint remains on the front line: a lack of ability to convert manpower and weapons into territorial advances, rather than a lack of funding.
  • Political Assessment: The current trajectory is deemed "very bad" for Donald Trump, Europe, and Ukraine, as it entrenches the Russian position without forcing a resolution.

Geopolitics of the Gulf

• Gulf States' Strategic Dilemma: The region faces a binary choice regarding the future of its relationship with Iran, which retains diminished but hostile clout and demonstrated capability to disrupt regional stability.
  • Option A (Dealmaking): Gulf states could attempt to cut a deal with Iran involving trade, investment, and a reduced US military role; however, this is viewed as unlikely due to high regional anger over the attacks.
  • Option B (Alignment): The more probable path is doubling down on US relations while building indigenous military capabilities as a deterrent.
• Socio-Economic Impact: Pursuing Option B would fundamentally alter the Gulf's business climate and the social contract with citizens, dismantling the region's status as an "oasis of stability."
• Stability Outlook: While premature to declare the region a failure, the post-war environment will necessitate a complete reassessment of the Gulf's place in the world order.

Implications for China and the US

• Strategic Choke Points: The conflict highlights the US capability to enforce a critical choke point on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a leverage point that would severely impact China in a potential war.
• US Military Performance:
  • Technical Proficiency: The US demonstrated "remarkable" technical execution in tracking Iran's leadership and maintaining air superiority, successfully locating and striking missiles that were elusive in the 1991 Gulf War.
  • Industrial Limitations: US interceptor stockpiles are insufficient to cope with protracted conflicts, a vulnerability that exposes the limits of current US defense industry capacity over the next two years.
• China's Calculated View:
  • Positive Takeaways: China will likely view the demonstration of US choke point leverage and military technical proficiency positively for its own modernization planning.
  • Negative Takeaways: The conflict is seen as blunting American appetite for prolonged warfare.
  • Net Assessment: The combined effect is estimated as "marginally positive" for China, which will analyze its own endurance capabilities against the perceived limits of American stamina in a long-duration conflict.
  • Historical Parallel: Similar to the 1991 Gulf War serving as a catalyst for 30 years of Chinese military modernization, this conflict will likely reinforce China's focus on developing its own "find and strike" capabilities and missile stockpiles.