Interview
Is the war in Ukraine nearing its end?
- Russian forces are expected to be defeated by occupiers in the north and southeast, with a potential retreat to the February 23rd lines viewed as militarily feasible.
- Arms supplies over the past six months represent the largest flow since World War II, significantly influencing future Ukrainian offensives.
- Western intelligence activity identifying Russian positions is anticipated to intensify in the coming weeks to support operations.
- Ukrainian military objectives have evolved beyond the February 23rd status quo to include the recapture of all territory, specifically Crimea annexed in 2014.
- While the current offensive aims to demonstrate the possibility of victory, such success is not expected to be imminent.
- A full restoration of pre-February borders would define victory; however, losing the current battle in this manner could mark the end of Putin's regime or the current Russian political system.
- Mobilization may expand the Russian army but requires many months, potentially over a year, to fully impact the war effort, with the resulting force likely lacking immediate combat effectiveness.
- Domestic anger among Russian right-wing nationalists and waning public support, particularly among younger demographics, are expected to trigger serious political fallout.
- The atmosphere in Kiev is predicted to remain composed as residents exercise caution regarding the display of captured Russian armor.
- Putin's political legitimacy is forecast to suffer following the military defeat, bringing the potential for regime collapse closer, though the specific timing remains uncertain.
- Concerns regarding sudden nuclear escalation or an immediate collapse threatening Russian sovereign territory are viewed as exaggerated.
- The offensive holds inestimable value for morale and the international community ahead of a difficult winter characterized by high gas prices.