Conference Presentation, Panel
ISIS and Global Terrorism: What It Will Take to Defeat Them
- Global terrorism and ISIS ideology are projected to remain a persistent, generation-long struggle comparable to the Cold War, with counter-ideology efforts expected to span a decade and require engagement from both government and private sector minds.
- Specific credible threats are identified for Great Britain, Italy, and Germany, with intelligence indicating a small number of individuals prepared for immediate violence against these nations, though a larger group shares the hostile worldview.
- A military strategy for taking Raqqa involves deploying 8,000 to 10,000 American forces alongside a regional force of 80,000 to 90,000, contingent on political moves regarding the Assad regime and regional cooperation.
- Political transitions in Syria are deemed necessary but viewed as unattainable without addressing Russian and Iranian support for Assad, with the prediction that political instability in the region will continue globally for many years.
- Iraq's Prime Minister Abadi is expected to require time to reform a state currently losing $3 billion in monthly revenues and controlling only a third of the territory, while ISIS finances are considered sufficient to sustain operations for a significant time despite pressure.
- Counter-propaganda efforts currently maintain a six-to-one advantage for anti-ISIS messaging on platforms like Twitter and will continue operating 24-7, though foreign fighter flows, financing, and propaganda networks require extended time to dismantle.
- The speaker anticipates inevitable additional attacks as pressure on ISIS intensifies, while noting that Arab governments, including Saudi Arabia with its "Vision 2030," are moving toward modernization and that Sunni Arab populations largely reject ISIL ideology.
- Iran's nuclear capabilities and revolutionary movement are identified as critical risks, with predictions that an Iranian nuclear weapon could trigger a nuclear response from every capable Sunni Arab state, leading to catastrophic outcomes.
- European nations face a massive strategic threat from ISIS presence in Libya on their doorstep if responsibilities are not taken seriously, and failure to engage could result in problems requiring a massive degree of commitment to overcome.
- The long-term solution is expected to rely on education and providing hopeful lives for populations, with the view that dictatorships where rulers hold everything and citizens receive nothing are becoming untenable.
- The speaker expects that populism from both the left and right may eventually converge on isolationism, which is viewed as a threat to resolving global security issues, while the ultimate resolution to the Iranian problem lies with the Iranian people as the theocracy is seen as being on borrowed time.