Interview, Press Conference
Israel’s election: what next for Netanyahu?
- Israel is scheduled to hold its fourth election in less than two years, with early voting anticipated to yield political dividends if COVID-19 vaccination and economic reopening succeed by the end of March.
- Polls indicate Netanyahu's party is receiving approximately 30 seats or fewer, falling short of his preferred threshold of at least 40, with the final outcome expected to hinge on small parties crossing the electoral threshold or minor seat fluctuations.
- Netanyahu faces a court session on April 5th, scheduled 13 days post-election, which is expected to proceed regardless of the election result and the clarity of laws regarding a prime minister's resignation.
- A primary motivation for the election is Netanyahu's hope to secure a Knesset majority capable of passing immunity legislation or replacing the Attorney General to revisit corruption charges, whereas losing power would reduce him to a Member of Parliament ineligible for ministerial roles or such legislative maneuvering.
- The political landscape features Yair Lapid as the largest challenger party after Likud, while Naftali Bennett is positioned as a potential kingmaker and Gideon Saadé leads a new faction distinct from Likud but opposing Netanyahu.
- Historical patterns show Netanyahu has lacked a Knesset majority since late 2018, and opposition unity remains compromised by political diversity, though there is a noted shift toward presidential-style one-man rule with a small advisory circle over the last 12 months.
- Foreign policy operations are expected to be centralized under Yossi Cohen of the Mossad reporting directly to the prime minister and through regular personal calls between Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin, effectively marginalizing the Foreign Ministry in regional and global relations.
- International expectations suggest a new Israeli administration would be viewed favorably by Washington, yet the next prime minister is unlikely to fully support US policy on the Iran nuclear deal or increase diplomatic engagement with Palestinians.
- Structural impediments to an Israeli-Palestinian deal are expected to persist regardless of the election outcome, with no significant pressure anticipated to alter current policies despite external expectations that the conflict might become a major campaign issue.
- Annexation promises in the West Bank made over the past three elections are not believed to reflect genuine intent, as no concrete steps were taken to implement them following previous election cycles.