Oct 11, 2023, 1:55 PM ETInterview, Podcast

Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East | Lex Fridman Podcast #399

Timeline of Events: The Hamas attack began on Saturday, October 7th at 6:30 a.m. Israel time, involving over 1,000 militants infiltrating via rocket cover, door-to-door killings, and mass kidnapping.
Casualty and Hostage Data: As of October 9th, the death toll exceeded 1,200, with over 130 hostages taken to Gaza; Kushner notes these figures are expected to rise.
Military Response: The Israeli Air Force initiated strikes on Gaza, ground forces are clearing militants from Israeli territory, and a full ground invasion of Gaza is being mobilized.
Siege Measures: Israeli ministers ordered a "complete siege" of Gaza, cutting off electricity, food, water, and fuel; civilians have been ordered to evacuate.
Nature of the Attack: Kushner characterizes the event as a terror attack on the scale of 9/11, citing specific atrocities including the beheading of soldiers and the kidnapping of vulnerable civilians, including an 80-year-old Holocaust survivor.
Hamas Charter: Hamas is identified as a group sworn to the destruction of Israel, ruling the Gaza Strip since 2006, and designated as a terrorist organization by the US, EU, UK, and Israel.

Iran's Role: Hamas is described as a proxy for Iran; Iran provides funding and resources to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis to destabilize the region and prevent regional peace.
Al-Aqsa Narrative: Kushner asserts the attack is not genuinely about access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, but rather a pretext used by Iranian-backed actors to incite violence; Israel permits peaceful prayer for Muslims at the site.
Gaza Governance: Kushner argues that 2.2 million Palestinians in Gaza are effectively "hostages" held by 30,000 Hamas terrorists, whose leadership prioritizes warfare over economic improvement.
Resource Diversion: Construction materials entering Gaza under previous arrangements were allegedly diverted by Hamas to build tunnels and weapons rather than housing for civilians.
Required Outcome: Kushner states peace is impossible while a terror group funded by Iran flourishes; the objective must be the elimination or severe degradation of Hamas's military capabilities.
Avoidability: He claims the conflict was "completely avoidable" had the previous administration maintained pressure on Iran and sustained the momentum of the Abraham Accords.

Policy Shifts: The Biden administration is criticized for restarting funding to the UNRWA, ceasing enforcement of Iran sanctions, and insulting traditional allies like Saudi Arabia.
Iran Sanctions Erosion: Under Trump, Iran's oil revenue dropped from 2.6 million barrels per day to 100,000; under Biden, Iran reportedly recovered to earning approximately $45 billion annually in oil revenue.
Trust Deficit: Kushner cites the US failure to communicate with UAE allies for 17 days during Houthi rocket attacks as a primary example of degraded trust in the region.
Strategic Consequence: The administration's perceived weakness and engagement with Iran are blamed for allowing Iran to fund terror attacks, including the October 7th assault.
Recommendation for Current Administration: Kushner advises the US to show maximum strength, support Israel completely, and ensure Iran faces severe consequences for instigating attacks via proxies.

Achievement: The Trump administration secured six peace deals (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, Kosovo, and a GCC deal) by separating the Palestinian issue from Arab-Israeli normalization.
Vision 2030: Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia is described as a high-energy, business-minded leader focused on massive economic modernization and reducing dependence on oil.
Economic Potential: A potential security and economic corridor from Haifa to Muscat is proposed to transform the region into a hub similar to "Silicon Valley not connected to California."
Negotiation Strategy: Success was achieved by creating a "golden bridge" for leaders, eliminating escape routes for those opposed to deals, and focusing on tangible economic outcomes rather than historical grievances.
Saudi Normalization: Kushner suggests halting immediate progress on Saudi-Israeli normalization to prioritize Israel's security restoration, though the economic logic for the deal remains valid.
Jamal Khashoggi Incident: MBS admitted responsibility and promised justice for the Khashoggi killing but maintained that the incident should not derail the broader modernization and alliance goals.

China's Strategic Goal: Citing The 100-Year Marathon, Kushner outlines China's long-term strategy to become the dominant global power by 2049, utilizing state capitalism and intellectual property theft.
Trade War: The Trump administration imposed significant tariffs to force China to follow international trade rules, ending the "free ride" on US technology and intellectual property.
First Meeting: Trump and Xi Jinping met at Mar-a-Lago, establishing a rapport that avoided Taiwan talks for four years, a significant diplomatic shift.
Strategic Parity: Trump's approach aimed to level the playing field so the US private sector could outperform China without predatory state subsidies.
Ukraine Conflict: Kushner asserts the war in Ukraine would not have occurred if Trump were president, attributing the invasion to perceived US weakness under the Biden administration.
Path to Resolution: Ending the Ukraine war requires a trusted broker to create a "landing zone" for both Putin and Zelensky to accept without public loss of face.

Father's Imprisonment: Kushner details his father's 2001 arrest for financial crimes, describing it as a transformative low point that taught him humility, the importance of second chances, and how to navigate public disgrace.
Prison Reform: As the lead architect of the First Step Act, Kushner facilitated bipartisan prison reform focusing on recidivism reduction through job training, with recidivism dropping from 47% to 12% for participants.
Trust in Negotiation: He posits that trust is the "table stakes" of negotiation, requiring leaders to understand the motivations of counterparts, particularly their desire to stay in power.
Business vs. Politics: Kushner contrasts the result-oriented culture of business with the risk-averse nature of politics, noting that successful governance often requires importing private-sector problem-solving mindsets.
Human Nature: Despite the existence of evil, he believes the vast majority of people are good and that connecting with those who disagree is the most effective way to combat hatred and find common ground.
Future Outlook: He expresses optimism that advancements in AI, energy, and medicine will usher in a new era of human flourishing if the world shifts focus from tribal conflicts to shared progress.