Interview, Fireside Chat
Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181
- Venture capital liquidity is predicted to remain in a "disaster" state after drying up for three years, with a return to normal levels expected within the next 18 to 24 months.
- Founders with decent exit opportunities are advised to accept them immediately, while early-stage fund managers are criticized for investing with an unrealistic assumption of 2021-level liquidity.
- Wiz is projected to undergo a secondary round within the next few months, with a potential initial public offering possible within 90 days if financials are clean or within approximately 18 months.
- CrowdStrike faces anticipated challenges in upselling and longer sales cycles, with the sales team expected to face difficulties for roughly three quarters, leading to "brutal" Net Revenue Retention despite high logo retention.
- CrowdStrike's market capitalization could recover to approximately $83 billion if growth slows, benefiting from extremely conservative growth projections in the "teens" for the upcoming year that provide a significant buffer.
- The SaaS sector is forecast to reach "2025" as the year of AI parity, where legal tech products will converge on identical AI features, compelling companies like Owner to add roughly 20 new features to maintain competitiveness.
- B2B AI market hype is expected to "calm down" within a year, and a majority of funds raised in recent years are predicted to conclude as "one X bonds."
- Klaviyo is valued at a minimum of $12 to $13 billion, with 70% of its revenue attributed to payments and merchant services similar to Shopify's model.
- Service Titan is identified as a potential top IPO candidate for the year, alongside a strategic preference for investing in Wiz and Service Titan over companies like Revolut or Tiger.
- For founders of companies valued at $100 million, recruiting talent is defined as the sole critical priority following the achievement of product-market fit.