Jan 25, 2023, 12:20 PM ETInterview

Jeremi Suri: Civil War, Slavery, Freedom, and Democracy | Lex Fridman Podcast #354

Lex FridmanJeremi Suri, Lex Fridman

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Conflicts often persist after official battles conclude, as parties rarely accept total defeat, creating a reality difficult for Americans to comprehend given the presumption that peace is immediate upon signing.
Historical flaws in U.S. democratic institutions, rooted in 17th, 18th, and 19th-century judgments, continue to impede societal innovation and growth.
Destroying existing institutions poses a significant risk where the most powerful dominate a resulting "jungle," while revolutionaries and vulnerable groups become victims of the chaos.
There is a prediction that by 2024, close elections will become common, with both Republican and Democratic victories likely to trigger nuanced claims of election fraud from losing sides.
In the event of a Ukrainian victory, the expectation is that President Zelensky must step down or be replaced to avoid concentrating excessive power, which could become dangerous.
A demographic shift is anticipated to place individuals in their 20s into leadership positions much faster than previous generations due to generational turnover.
The 20th century was characterized by non-close elections, but the current era is expected to shift toward frequent, highly competitive electoral outcomes.
If the Confederacy had won the Civil War, a hostile rival republic would have been established in the South, potentially expanding into the Caribbean and exporting slavery globally.
The 1876 election is identified as a turning point where the Confederacy effectively won via political deal-making, leading to a decline in African American voting rights that did not recover until the late 20th century.
The record for resolving issues through institutions is viewed as superior to destroying them, though specific circumstances may still warrant institutional dismantling.
Young people are expected to leverage social media to bypass traditional media gatekeepers, gaining platforms to drive consciousness-raising and solve societal divisions.
It is predicted that societal divisions can be unmade by people, driven by a "consciousness raising" and the belief that human nature ultimately aspires to do good.
Proper leadership and governance are seen as necessary to help human beings resist urges toward enslavement and brutality, redirecting energy into productive uses.
If a society lacks institutional frameworks, game theory suggests individuals will be punished for attempting to do good.
The war in Ukraine is viewed as a test case where democracy must evolve with unique cultural characteristics rather than simply mirroring the United States.
Historical narratives from the 20 years following the Civil War are largely attributed to the losers, obscuring the messy reality of the 1865 to 1880 period.
The assassination of Lincoln is forecasted to have prevented the pardon of Confederate leaders, a decision that would have led to a fairer transition of power had Lincoln remained in office.
Elites who committed wrongdoing are warned against being allowed to return to power without restriction, as this creates systemic unfairness and is a negative feature of the current system.
Most people who lose close elections are predicted to remain unhappy, believing that external actions were taken against them regardless of the outcome.
The Union victory is deemed the far superior outcome because a Confederate victory would have entrenched slavery and encouraged its expansion globally.
Human capacity for harm is acknowledged alongside the ability to resist such urges when supported by appropriate leadership and governance structures.
The mass torture of animals associated with factory farming is predicted to be viewed as morally evil in 50 years.
Social media platforms are expected to provide necessary opportunities for young people to influence discourse without requiring approval from established media outlets like the New York Times.
Progress regarding the problem of hate is expected to occur through local leaders rather than through wars, which do not inherently solve hatred.
The first attempt at leadership or institutional reform will rarely be successful, requiring leaders to navigate failure to achieve results.
A specific concern exists regarding the 2024 election, where the probability of fraud claims rising after either a Republican or Democratic victory is considered high.
The 2024 election is predicted to see a high likelihood of fraud allegations regardless of the winner, contrasting with the 20th-century norm of non-close elections.
Young leaders are expected to drive change, fueled by a demographic shift that accelerates their entry into positions of authority compared to their parents' generation.
The historical record indicates that burning down institutions is generally a poor strategy, with working through existing frameworks yielding better results.
The Confederacy is expected to have survived without another war only if slavery ended through a different mechanism, though the likelihood of another conflict remains high.
Most listeners are expected to struggle with maintaining an "outsider" status, eventually becoming "insider insiders" who forget that rules can be broken.
The potential for a Confederate victory includes the expansion of a slave republic into the Caribbean, highlighting the negative global implications of such an outcome.
The expectation is that human beings naturally desire to do good, and institutions serve to protect and enable this instinct rather than suppress it.
The war does not solve problems of hate; instead, progress relies on local leaders and individuals who stand up to oppose it.
The history of the post-Civil War era is largely written by the losers, meaning the Northerners are not expected to record the ugly and messy details of 1865 to 1880.
There is a hope that young people are excited to solve societal problems, aided by a recent increase in consciousness regarding divisions.
The 1876 election marks a moment where the Confederacy won, causing a decline in African American voters that would not recover until the late 20th century.
The prediction is that human beings are capable of doing enormous harm but also capable of resisting those urges with proper governance.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record than destroying them, though there might be times when destruction is necessary.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome because a Confederate victory would have exported slavery to other parts of the world.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war if slavery ended another way, but it likely would have been with another war.
The war doesn't solve problems of hate, and progress is made where local leaders and others stand up.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
Human beings are capable of doing enormous harm.
Most people want to do good.
Institutions allow you to do what you actually want.
The record for working through institutions is a much better record.
The record for burning down institutions is not a great record.
The Union victory is by far the better outcome.
The Confederacy would have expanded into the Caribbean if it had won the war.
The South could have survived without another war