Panel
Jobs in the Developed World
Milken InstitutePeter Passell, Dean Baker, Bethann Bovino, Diana Farrell, Kevin Hassett, Stephen Ratner
- U.S. unemployment is projected to remain extraordinarily high with the recovery period extending four to five years beyond pre-recession capacity and rates potentially staying in the 8 percent range for a decade.
- The long-term unemployed share is expected to remain significantly elevated at 36 percent, with chronic unemployment rising as a distinct class of hard-to-employ workers emerges without targeted reintegration programs.
- Wage growth is predicted to stagnate on an inflation-adjusted basis from mid-2009 through March, driven by a lack of aggregate demand, global competition, and ferocious downward pressure in manufacturing and tradable sectors like the auto industry.
- Job recovery is anticipated to be uneven, with hiring concentrated in low-paying service sectors such as fast food and health care while middle-class and higher-income jobs, including manufacturing roles, fail to return to pre-recession levels.
- North Dakota is cited as a case study where long-term unemployment remains four times historical levels despite low overall rates, necessitating specific policies to prevent capacity loss.
- Research suggests that ending unemployment benefits causes recipients to stop job searching rather than immediately securing employment, whereas extending these benefits sustains demand among high-propensity spenders.
- Congressional gridlock is expected to block sensible solutions to extend unemployment benefits, creating a dilemma where policymakers worry about subsidizing long-term unemployment despite the risks of current system disincentives.
- Proposed reforms to unemployment insurance include cash payouts retained upon re-employment to reduce work disincentives, alongside work-sharing programs requiring federal cost coverage to reduce job destruction by hundreds of thousands of monthly jobs.
- Youth unemployment is expected to remain historically high globally, including for college graduates, due to inadequate educational information and a stigma surrounding vocational training that hinders labor force participation.
- Immigration reform focusing on high-skilled employment is projected to add approximately 3.2 percent growth to the real economy between 2015 and 2024, with 100 advanced-degree immigrants creating 44 to 262 additional U.S. jobs depending on STEM fields.
- High-skilled immigration is identified as a demographic necessity to counter a 2030 projection where 20 percent of U.S. residents are aged 65 and older, contrasting with only 6 percent of high-skilled immigrants in that age bracket.
- Claims by manufacturers of skilled labor shortages are scrutinized against evidence of stagnant wages for domestic STEM workers, suggesting businesses may not be acting as though a genuine shortage exists.
- Automation and robotics are predicted to reach an inflection point where autonomous vehicles could replace all truck drivers within 10 to 15 years, though productivity growth is not expected to end despite fears of job elimination.
- Micro-job platforms like Uber are expected to explode due to information technology, reducing entry barriers for long-term unemployed workers while the broader market sees a 46 percent increase in temp workers requiring new benefit structures.
- Shortening work hours by 20 to 25 percent is proposed as a response to automation to distribute work broadly, while universal basic income is mentioned as a potential future subject if society shifts toward supporting non-work-connected individuals.