Interview, Fireside Chat
Joe Biden wins: what next for America?
- Joe Biden is projected to win the presidency with approximately 306 electoral college votes and a popular vote margin of roughly 4 million, with late improvements in contested states attributed to Democratic mail-in ballot counting.
- The country remains deeply divided, presenting challenges for national unity, though legal challenges to the election results by Donald Trump are expected to be dismissed quickly without reaching the Supreme Court.
- Claims of election fraud are anticipated to remain a fringe activity due to widespread public and Republican media acceptance of the results, while poll errors are expected to show a systemic inability to predict a Biden victory in states he actually won.
- High voter turnout, driven by extreme partisanship and existential threat, is not expected to persist in future cycles without such specific motivators.
- Legislative progress is projected to be limited under a divided government with a Republican-controlled Senate, though some cooperation on stimulus, infrastructure, or climate change remains possible if the party seeks broader appeal for the 2022 and 2024 elections.
- If the Republican Party doubles down on Trumpism, legislative cooperation is unlikely, whereas a shift toward a broader appeal could enable cross-aisle deals; the party is expected to retain protectionism and anti-immigration elements even if personality-driven aspects evolve.
- President Biden is expected to prioritize durable legislative change but may use executive orders to reverse Trump's regulatory and immigration actions if Congress stalls.
- In his final 73 days, Donald Trump is expected to focus on appealing to his base rather than enacting significant policy shifts, while also considering a 2024 presidential run or a return to media prominence to maintain the "Trump brand."
- Donald Trump is projected to remain a central figure in headlines for the next two to four years and avoid fading from relevance, while the Republican Party is expected to retain its status as the party of the white working class for several election cycles.
- US-China relations are not expected to soften, with a bipartisan consensus likely to maintain tariff wars and strategies to check China's rise, though a calmer, more strategic approach with allies is anticipated under the Biden administration compared to the previous administration's sanctions.
- The Chinese Communist Party is expected to view the US as committed to stopping its rise regardless of the administration, making future diplomatic deals contingent on this strategic reality.
- Future Republican leadership may adopt a "cleaned up" version of Trumpism characterized by similar policy views but a less disruptive style, while the party risks losing the luster of the Trump brand if its continued political relevance is not actively maintained.