Keoki Jackson: Lockheed Martin | Lex Fridman Podcast #33

Lockheed Martin's Space Portfolio and Vision

• Current Assets:
  • Developing the Orion spacecraft, described as the most sophisticated human-rated spacecraft ever built for deep space journeys starting with the Moon and targeting Mars.
  • Designing the "Mars Base Camp" concept to transport humans to the surface and return them safely.
  • Partnering with Boeing to form United Launch Alliance (ULA) for next-generation launch vehicles aimed at reducing launch costs and increasing flexibility.
• Strategic Goals:
  • Aiming for a permanent, sustainable human presence beyond low Earth orbit (cislunar space) within the next decade.
  • Targeting a lunar return in the 2024–2025 timeframe to establish a base for transfer to the lunar surface and back.
  • Focusing on building the infrastructure for a space economy, including in-space fuel, air, and consumables production.
• Robotic Exploration Milestones:
  • Executing the OSIRIS-REx mission to map asteroid Bennu and collect soil samples using a non-contact "pogo stick" collection mechanism.
  • Leveraging autonomous systems for continuous mapping of Mars and asteroid surfaces, effectively creating a "virtual human presence" despite communication delays.
  • Utilizing AI and cognitive systems to enhance robotic decision-making and processing power for complex data interpretation.

Human-Machine Teaming in Space

• The "Maya" System:
  • An AI assistant developed for astronauts to act as an "Alexa in space," monitoring spacecraft health and operations.
  • Integrates with a "digital tapestry" of the spacecraft's design, build, and test data to predict anomalies and suggest solutions before failures occur.
  • Designed to handle the monitoring of infinite data points that exceed human capacity, allowing humans to focus on adaptation and high-level decision-making.
• Verification and Validation Challenges:
  • Developing "digital twins" to simulate non-deterministic, learning AI systems in complex space environments before deployment.
  • Funding university research (including at MIT) to solve the verification of autonomous systems that learn and change behavior over time.
  • Establishing rigorous culture of "continuous inquiry and skepticism" to ensure AI systems behave predictably and safely.

Defense Systems and Autonomous Capabilities

• Key Defensive Platforms:
  • Aegis Combat System: Integrated air and missile defense for fleets (Aegis) and land (Aegis Ashore) protecting against ballistic, cruise, and aircraft threats.
  • THAAD: Theater High Altitude Area Defense system protecting broad areas from sophisticated ballistic missiles.
  • PAC-3: Advanced Patriot missile system utilizing "hit-to-kill" technology.
• Hypersonics and Stealth:
  • Investing heavily in hypersonic technology (Mach 5+) to maintain parity with Russian and Chinese capabilities and counter emerging threats.
  • Continuing "cat and mouse" R&D in stealth geometry and materials to counter improving radar detection systems.
  • Highlighting the F-35 as a "flying information system" with advanced sensor fusion and stealth capabilities.
• Autonomy Integration:
  • Implementing the "Have Raider" demo using an F-16 as an autonomous "loyal wingman" to allow a single pilot to control multiple aircraft.
  • Deploying AutoGCAS (Autonomous Ground Collision Avoidance System) in F-16s and F-35s to prevent G-lock induced crashes, having already saved eight pilots.
  • Developing "Matrix" technology at Sikorsky Innovations for "optimal piloting," enabling variable autonomy levels (from fully crewed to fully autonomous) for helicopters in zero-visibility conditions.

Ethics, Safety, and Policy in AI

• Human Control Policy:
  • Adherence to Department of Defense Directive 3000.09, which mandates human agency and control over the use of semi-autonomous and autonomous weapon systems.
  • Ensuring systems are tested in realistic scenarios, operators are trained, and human-machine interfaces clearly display system states and decision logic.
  • Explicitly rejecting the "AI arms race" scenario by establishing strict rules of engagement and doctrine similar to chemical/biological weapons treaties.
• Cultural and Ethical Framework:
  • Integrating core values ("Do what is right, Respect others, Perform with excellence") into AI development to prevent bias and ensure privacy.
  • Acknowledging that AI accelerates the "OODA loop" (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) by compressing decision times from years to seconds, crucial for countering adversaries.
  • Prioritizing "dull, dirty, and dangerous" tasks for automation while retaining human oversight for critical tactical decisions.

Strategic Deterrence and Geopolitics

• Deterrence Evolution:
  • Recalibrating strategic deterrence for a multipolar world with over 70 nations possessing ballistic missile capabilities, up from a handful during the Cold War.
  • Modernizing nuclear systems (e.g., Trident missiles) to ensure reliability and adaptability for future decades.
  • Expanding deterrence definitions to include cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure (electric grids, water systems) alongside traditional WMDs.
• Nuclear Reality:
  • Asserting that strategic deterrence has prevented the large-scale world wars seen in the 20th century.
  • Maintaining that the possibility of human self-destruction remains real, necessitating continuous investment in defensive and counter-offensive capabilities.

Industry Outlook and Competition

• Commercial and Space Dynamics:
  • Viewing SpaceX and Elon Musk as strong competitive forces that drive innovation and lower barriers to entry via increased computing power and additive manufacturing.
  • Highlighting internal advancements in "smart satellites" and software-defined satellites capable of re-mapping missions while on orbit.
  • Maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes significant commercial ventures in energy, space, and commercial aircraft alongside military work.
• Future Innovation:
  • Investing in quantum computing to counter threats and enhance processing capabilities.
  • Anticipating a future that is faster, more connected, autonomous, and complex, with exploration extending to the sun and the edge of the solar system.
  • Emphasizing the continuous reinvention of the company since its founding in the early 20th century to survive and lead in changing technological landscapes.