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Landing padded: the global-recession risk
The EconomistJason Palmer, Colin Williams, Holly Berman, Henrietta McFarlane, Erica Kaplan, Liam McGregor, Anne Rowe
- Global inflation in the US and other wealthy nations is projected to continue its downward trend, with the median OECD country maintaining levels near the 2% target, while the global economy is anticipated to achieve a soft landing with robust high-frequency indicators like PMI and real-time GDP.
- Although fears of a recession are intensifying, the global economy is not considered to be in immediate danger; however, US unemployment is expected to rise short-term due to increased workforce participation, even as high-frequency data shows no evidence of a slowdown.
- US corporate earnings are forecast to grow approximately 10% year-on-year in the current second quarter, with earnings in other rich countries also expected to perform well without the sharp decline typical of a recession.
- Market volatility is expected to stem from technical interest rate adjustments and sociological factors rather than concrete recession indicators, as historical economic rules of thumb remain unreliable for predicting recessions due to post-pandemic anomalies until they become useful again within a few years.
- Consumer preferences are shifting toward offline dating experiences, evidenced by a 42% increase in event attendance between 2022 and 2023, driving demand for matchmaking services with membership numbers reaching twice the 2019 levels.
- Traditional dating apps face challenges in adapting to these preferences, leading to collaborations between incumbents like Tinder and Bumble with run clubs, while new paid apps like Swan and high-end matchmaking firms targeting prices between £5,900 and £20,000 are positioned for growth.
- The "Marriage Pact" initiative is projected to have nearly 500,000 participants and 250,000 matches, with users being three to four times more likely to maintain a relationship for a year or longer compared to app-based meetings.
- Dating apps outside the Western markets are expected to continue performing well, and venues such as run clubs and workout tracking applications like Strava will persist in serving as key hubs for in-person social connection.