Leeward: we meet South Korea’s probable president

South Korean Political Crisis and Leadership Shift

• President Yoon Suk-yeol's December attempt to impose martial law resulted in his removal from office, indictment for insurrection, and an ongoing impeachment trial.
• Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who physically intervened in the National Assembly to halt the martial law deployment, is currently the polling frontrunner for the next presidency.
• Lee faces significant legal hurdles, including:
  • A November conviction for election law violations regarding falsehoods in a prior campaign; if upheld, this bars him from running for several years.
  • Charges related to a hometown development project and illegal fund transfers to North Korea, which he claims are politically motivated.
• Recent polling indicates a swing in public sentiment, with the Democratic Party moving from a strong lead to a near-neck-and-neck position against the ruling party due to voter fatigue and polarization.
• Lee Jae-myung has repositioned his platform toward pragmatism and economic recovery, shifting from his historical progressive stance to emphasize private markets and restoring growth.
• Foreign Policy Stance: Lee signals a potential pivot from his party's traditional alignment:
  • North Korea: Anticipates a shift toward dialogue but explicitly defines the current relationship as "hostile."
  • Japan: Expresses openness to cooperation and rejects a "subordinate" relationship, diverging from past Democratic Party skepticism.
  • US-China Balance: Advocates for a "practical" approach to the US-China rivalry, prioritizing national interest over strict alignment with either bloc while maintaining membership in the "liberal democratic camp."

Escalating Violence and Humanitarian Crisis in Colombia

• The National Liberation Army (ELN) has intensified attacks on Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents in the Catatumbo region, killing at least 80 people with estimates of the true toll in the hundreds.
• Displacement Metrics:
  • Over 53,000 people have been displaced, marking the largest forced movement in Colombia since 1997.
  • Approximately 31,000 residents remain trapped in Catatumbo, while others have fled across the border into Venezuela.
• The region, producing 17% of Colombia's coca leaf, is the epicenter of the conflict due to disputes over drug trafficking routes through Venezuela.
• Government Response: President Gustavo Petro declared a "state of internal commotion" (first since 2008) and suspended ELN peace talks:
  • Military deployment is complicated by the absence of insignia on combatants and an active ceasefire with FARC dissidents.
  • The state's capacity is further strained by a potential 90-day freeze on US foreign aid.
• Root Causes and Failures: Community leaders attribute the crisis to the incomplete implementation of the 2016 peace deal, specifically the failure to deliver promised infrastructure (roads, schools) and alternative economic programs for coca farmers.
• Venezuela's regime is accused of sheltering the ELN and profiting from illicit gold mining and drug production in the border region.

Obituary: Marianne Faithfull

• Faithfull was a defining cultural figure of the 1960s, associated with the Rolling Stones (boyfriend Mick Jagger, and brief romantic links to Brian Jones and Keith Richards), William S. Burroughs, and the "free love" movement.
• Her public persona shifted dramatically in 1967 following a police raid where she was found at Keith Richards' home wearing only a fur rug and a Mars bar, leading to intense media vilification.
• She descended into heroin addiction in the late 1960s, living on the streets of Soho from 1970–1971, during which she incurred roughly £20,000 in drug debts and suffered severe physical degradation, including lost teeth and ravaged vocal cords.
• Her 1979 album Broken English marked a critical comeback, showcasing a transformed, gravelly voice and a theme of defiance.
• She achieved sobriety in 1985 and passed away as a symbol of redemption, having survived the era's excesses and the eventual collapse of the utopian 1960s dream.