Conference Presentation, Panel
London Summit 2015 - City Life: New Designs for an Urban Planet (I)
Milken InstituteKevin Klowden, Claire Cockerton, James Goldsmith, Nicolaus Henke, Bridget Rosewell, Duncan Swinhoe
- Global urbanization is projected to increase the population of the top 600 cities to 2 billion by 2025, with mid-sized cities (150,000 to 10 million people) accounting for 45% of world growth, while megacities over 10 million are expected to shrink or contribute minimally to growth.
- Cities are anticipated to address lifestyle, health, and infrastructure challenges through walkable, bikeable models and the repurposing of assets like old railway lines, shifting healthcare from reactive to preventive models via data connectivity.
- London's population is forecast to rise by 2 million by 2030, necessitating a doubling of annual housing construction to at least 40,000 units to prevent shortages, though the private rented sector faces structural limits in providing family housing due to profitability incentives.
- Significant economic pressures include a U.S. off-balance sheet Medicare liability of minus 71 trillion, a strain on infrastructure from household growth outpacing population growth, and the risk that non-UK regions lack connectivity, causing youth exodus and leaving aging populations with long-term care deficits.
- Regional development strategies involve devolution of budgetary control to city councils, the potential relocation of major businesses like HSBC and Deutsche Bank to Birmingham following HS2 completion, and the expansion of university campuses to catalyze local economies.
- Third-tier cities face existential risks requiring collaboration with major urban centers to survive the loss of traditional industrial bases, while European cities aim to develop unique global narratives and USPs to participate in international trade independent of national comparisons.