Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
London Summit 2015 - The Future of Europe (I)
- Speakers anticipate a 20-year outlook where Europe faces a binary choice between further integration into a political union or dissolution, potentially evolving into a multi-velocity structure with two, three, or four distinct groupings.
- Material expectations include a high probability of UK membership remaining in the EU following a referendum with a 50-50 estimated probability, driven by Cameron's expected negotiation of associate status and pressure from the German car industry, though some predict a Brexit could trigger a cascade where Austria and Sweden follow.
- Predictions regarding EU expansion suggest a five to ten-year moratorium on admitting former Yugoslavian states, with a risk that repeating past mistakes with candidate countries like Serbia or Montenegro will occur if integration mechanisms are not adjusted.
- Significant risks involve the inability to mutualize risk or establish a banking and fiscal union due to economic and cultural disparities across 28 to 34 member states, which may lead to a permanent fiasco of multilateralism or a "black swan" event triggered by internal and external pressures.
- Projections indicate that Germany's demographic decline from 80 to 60 million and Spain's unemployment issues will strain the union, while the influx of 800,000 to 1 million migrants in Germany is expected to create societal inability to cope and foster right-wing elements, despite short-term German reflation boosting Eurozone performance.
- Future plans and political developments foresee the German car industry lobbying for UK retention, a potential shift of the border to Dover if the UK opts out, and a treaty amendment process taking three to four years, alongside expectations of deeper centralization in foreign and military policy without national vetoes.
- Economic forecasts suggest that 80% of SMEs in the UK would restore employment and health legislation to national jurisdiction if left the EU, potentially creating 2 million jobs, while TTIP is viewed as a critical transatlantic project necessary for SME employment growth but threatened by populist opposition.
- Specific risks regarding the refugee crisis include the conflation of economic migrants with refugees, the potential use of migration flows by ISIS to flood Europe with jihadists, and the impossibility of relying solely on refugees to fill Germany's qualified worker gap.
- Predictions state that full employment will not return to levels understood currently, requiring Europe to accept a new employment model, and that the UK's historical loss of parliamentary, court, and border sovereignty over 40 years will likely continue without fundamental reform in Brussels.
- Expectations for future leadership suggest a reputation shock from recent elections and populism will prevent the emergence of real European leaders, while the UK parliament's history of opposing the Council of Ministers 40 times under Cameron indicates a continued adversarial relationship.