Panel, Fireside Chat
Lunch Program | Global Overview: Where Does Growth Come From?
- Tony Blair anticipates entering the private equity sector as a future possibility while predicting Europe will ultimately align with the US on Ukraine despite current economic divisions with Russia.
- Blair views Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation as essential and inevitable despite breakdowns, expects the UK to remain a superior choice over breakup, and considers an EU referendum exit possible but inadvisable.
- Regarding the Scottish independence vote, Blair acknowledges the uncertainty and tight margins, hoping for a stay within the UK and noting the US may choose not to intervene.
- Blair predicts the African middle class will double within five years, contrasting the continent's outlook as rosier than the Middle East or Europe.
- Paul Kagame expects long-term growth in Sub-Saharan Africa driven by domestic demand, urbanization, and infrastructure needs, while suggesting regional integration in East Africa effectively links all investments to Rwanda.
- Scott Minard predicts interest rate hikes will be delayed until late 2015 or potentially early 2016, with the year prior to tightening historically showing a 20% to 30% increase in US equity valuations.
- Minard forecasts Janet Yellen may tolerate more inflation to raise living standards and predicts QE 3 will be viewed as a policy mistake by history.
- Osamu Nakayama expects Japanese consumption to recover within three months of a tax hike and anticipates a surge in entrepreneurship as young people launch companies and corporations deploy free cash.
- Wilhelm N. Butler forecasts US economic growth at over 3% for the remainder of the year and the following year, leading to a decline in unemployment, before returning to a potential output of just over 2%.
- Butler projects Euro area growth at 1.3% to 1.4% for the current year, an improvement from previous negative figures, while cautioning that inflationary pressures may emerge before the US unemployment rate reaches 5% to 5.5%.
- Butler anticipates a sharp but short correction in China due to unsustainable growth and credit bubbles, though he expects the government to successfully bail out its banking sector.
- Butler suggests the ECB will utilize "helicopter money" style policies to manage deflation and anticipates a delicate balancing act regarding Bundesbank-friendly approaches.
- The moderator expects attendance at the Washington Monument opening on May 12th to view the repaired structure and a new baby panda.