Lunch Program | Part 1: A Conversation with Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Secretary, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

Relationship with Donald Trump

• First met under adversarial circumstances during the Taj Mahal bankruptcy proceedings, where both Wilbur Ross and Carl Icahn represented bondholders against Trump.
• Concluded after the bankruptcy that the Trump brand and management were more valuable than the alternative, leading to active support.
• Offered Ross the Secretary of Commerce position after Ross responded to a White House "Help Wanted" ad; Trump selected the 100-word response.
• Ross views the role as a form of penance and entered government later in his career due to being a "late bloomer."

Election and Campaign Dynamics

• Ross had no doubt Trump would win the election due to the intense enthusiasm observed at rallies, specifically noting a Minnesota rally where 13,000 people waited four hours past the start time.
• Ross notes that the quality of government personnel is higher than anticipated, with many serious and experienced individuals trapped in a dysfunctional system.
• Donald Trump loves the job but faces significant obstacles regarding a less unified Republican Party and a highly unified Democratic opposition.

Trade Policy and Agreements (NAFTA, TPP, China)

• Ross's primary mandate is acting as the President's point person on trade, including renegotiating NAFTA and exiting the TPP.
• Critiques of multilateral agreements (like TPP) include their excessive duration (approx. 10 years) and the risk that negotiators become more invested in securing a deal rather than the best deal.
• Prefers bilateral agreements over plurilateral ones to avoid the "chain of concessions" effect where one country's gains are offset by another's bargaining power.
• NAFTA Renegotiation: Halted only by the "Trade Promotional Authority" (Fast Track) legislative process; negotiations cannot formally begin until Congress authorizes the next 90-day period.
• China Engagement:
  • Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, Ross and the administration secured a 100-day agreement with China to produce specific trade deliverables.
  • Ross expressed optimism that "satisfactory deliverables" would emerge within this 100-day window, contrasting the speed of trade negotiations with the typical multi-year timeline.
• Canada:
  • Imposed an average 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber ($1 billion annually) due to violations of trade agreements; negotiations had failed.
  • Dismissed concerns that tariffs will double housing costs, citing that Canadian lumber is only 30% of the U.S. supply and represents a small fraction of total home construction costs.
  • Denied claims of being unhappy about Canadian "melons," noting this is a new issue for him in the role.

Economic Outlook and Legislative Goals

• GDP Growth: Ross is optimistic about achieving 2% to 2.5% growth this year and expects higher growth once tax reforms, regulatory rollbacks, and trade fixes are fully implemented.
• Obstacles to Reform: Identifies the slow pace of the administration's agenda as a result of congressional obstruction and Democratic resistance to the administration's success in the 2018 midterms.
• Tax Legislation: Expresses hope that tax legislation will pass this year, contingent on Republican unity and willpower to overcome Democratic blockades.
• Market Sentiment: Believes the stock market is correctly anticipating future economic improvements; notes strong business executive enthusiasm for the new administration.

Department Operations and Daily Routine

• The Department of Commerce oversees 47,000 employees across disparate entities including NOAA, the Census Bureau, and the Patent Office.
• Ross manages high-level meetings in small groups ("threesies") and attends security briefings (SCIF) for 30–60 minutes daily.
• Spends approximately two hours daily at the White House and maintains regular contact with business leaders and union partners, viewing the latter as a partnership rather than adversaries.

Anecdotes and Personal Details

• Military Service: Ross's entry into Wall Street was accidental after serving 18 months in the Army (funded by ROTC) and inheriting a venture capital fund assignment after his initial employers' firms merged and restructured.
• Slippers: Ross wore custom Department of Commerce slippers to the State of the Union for comfort during TV interviews, which generated media attention; he considers auctioning them for charity.
• Political Strategy: Ross suggests Democratic delays in confirming his nomination were a strategic attempt to slow the administration's momentum ahead of the 2018 congressional elections.